Driving Ambitions: The Implications of Decarbonizing the Transportation Sector by 2030

Zero-emission vehicle sales must reach 70 percent by 2030 to hit federal emissions targets: C.D. Howe Institute

• A complete transformation of Canada’s passenger vehicle market – with 70 - 75 percent of sales being of Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030 – is required in order to hit Ottawa’s emissions targets. This compares to the current 3.5 percent of sales being ZEVs in 2020.
• Authors Joel Balyk, Brian Livingston, Sara Hastings-Simon and Grant Bishop examine the federal government’s December 2020 climate plan, and calculate to achieve the projected reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) from Canada’s transportation sector, approximately 7.7 million zero-emission passenger vehicles would need to be on the road in 2030 – equivalent to a 30 percent share of the total vehicle stock.
• The federal government’s plan projects a reduction of 213 megatonnes (MT) of greenhouse gas emissions – or 30 percent of 2018 nationwide GHGs – by 2030. The plan projects GHGs from transportation to fall by 35 MT from 186 MT in 2018 to 151 MT by 2030.