The chart illustrates both the historical and projected shares of non-permanent residents (NPRs), highlighting a significant rise, which peaked in mid-2024. Moving forward, Canada aims to moderate this trend, but to hit its target, it must reduce the number of NPRs by approximately 933,000 (over 30 percent) between mid-2024 and the beginning of 2027, a challenge when the anticipated inflow of NPRs is projected to exceed 1.2 million.
Note: The calculations are based on the methodology in Skuterud and Mahboubi (2024), using recently announced immigration level targets.
