Council Reports

Governments must work alongside private lenders to provide sustained support to bridge companies through the crisis, paying particular attention to sectors most likely to suffer a prolonged period of low demand even as the economy re-opens, according to a C.D. Howe Institute working group.

At its latest meetings on May 5 and May 12, the Crisis Working Group on Business Continuity and Trade discussed the risks and headwinds for economic recovery and the action that is needed to prevent “scarring” in key economic sectors – notably air travel, agrifood, petroleum, and tourism and accommodation.

The group of industry experts and economists noted if businesses face distress and a disorderly wave of insolvencies, the ability of…

May 11, 2020 – Better utilization of the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) will help support businesses and individuals during the gradual re-opening of the economy and maintain employer-employee relationships, says the C.D. Howe Institute’s Crisis Working Group on Household Income and Credit Support.

At their recent meeting, working group members identified factors contributing to the large utilization gap between the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and CEWS, highlighted the importance of timely and reliable data, and considered the financial needs of Canadians who will not qualify for Employment Insurance (EI) after exhausting CERB.   

The group supports the federal government’s decision to…

May 7, 2020 - Policymakers should help ensure capital is flowing efficiently to businesses best placed to drive economic growth during the recovery, according to the C.D. Howe Institute’s Crisis Working Group on Monetary and Financial Measures.  Economic recovery will hinge on viable companies being able to invest and adapt to the changing structure of the economy, avoid unsustainable debt, and replenish their working capital. To this end, the Crisis Working Group recommends policymakers and regulators take the following steps:

Reduce uncertainty about the future course of public policy and regulation by continuing to be transparent in communication with the public. Reduce regulatory impediments to capital flow,…

May 4, 2020 – Rapid increases in testing and contact tracing are needed to hasten the re-opening of the economy, according to a C.D. Howe Institute working group.

The Working Group on Business Continuity and Trade, co-chaired by Dwight Duncan, Senior Strategic Advisor at McMillan LLP and former Ontario Minister of Finance, and Jeanette Patell, Vice-President of Government Affairs and Policy for GE Canada, also emphasized a need for targeted support to provide liquidity for businesses.

Based on international experience, the group noted widely available testing and effective tracing are essential to manage risks for health system capacity and workplace transmission, as a precursor to re-opening the economy. While balancing…

May 1, 2020 – Preliminary data suggest Canada entered a recession in the first quarter of 2020 with a February peak, says the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council.

The Council, comprised of Canada’s preeminent economists in the field and co-chaired by Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council typically meets annually, but also when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuring government shutdown that put a stop to much economic activity, the Council met on April 16 to review the case for calling the beginning of a recession in the first quarter of 2020 and the dating of…