National Process Needed to Hasten Vaccine Development: Crisis Working Group on Public Health and Emergency Measures
April 30, 2020 - A national decision-making process should be established as soon as possible to review ongoing research here and abroad and provide advice to Canadian governments, according to the C.D. Howe Institute’s Crisis Working Group on Public Health and Emergency Measures. Unprecedented collaboration will be required if a coronavirus vaccine is to be approved and available to the public within an 18-month timeframe.
Canada should leverage its existing advantage in vaccine manufacturing and begin expanding domestic capacity to ensure access for Canadians and the potential to contribute to the global supply through exports. Next steps include:
Establishing the process for evaluating successful trials.…When the Smoke Clears: Tackling Disincentives to Work
April 27, 2020 – It’s time to consider the gradual winding down of emergency benefits and tackle disincentives to work, says the C.D. Howe Institute’s Crisis Working Group on Household Income and Credit Support.
Rather than extending the criteria for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) to fill remaining support gaps, new targeted federal or provincial programs should be used to cover those still ineligible.
At their April 21 meeting, the group identified niche populations who are affected by COVID-19 but are falling through the cracks as they do not meet the CERB requirements, including working social assistance recipients and new entrants to the labour market. However, these support gaps should be…
Restart Playbook Must Balance Risk with Economic Cost: Crisis Working Group on Business Continuity and Trade
April 24, 2020 – Any framework for a gradual reopening of the economy should be transparent, pan-Canadian, and balance the risks of further transmission with the economic costs of leaving key sectors shut down, says the C.D. Howe Institute Crisis Working Group on Business Continuity and Trade.
In its meeting on April 21, the group of economists and industry experts, co-chaired by Dwight Duncan, Senior Strategic Advisor at McMillan LLP and former Ontario Minister of Finance, and Jeanette Patell, Vice-President of Government Affairs and Policy for GE Canada, discussed what the playbook for a gradual return to work should look like.
Recommended principles for this playbook are:
Transparent pre-conditions for each stage…Expanded Bank of Canada Balance Sheet Requires Balancing Act: Crisis Working Group on Monetary and Financial Measures
April 23, 2020 – Between early March and mid-April, the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet more than doubled, dwarfing anything seen in 2008. Moreover unlike 2008, this increase has serious implications for future inflation, because the Bank’s increased liabilities are not the result of government deposits, but rather increased “settlement balances” or deposits by financial institutions, which increases the monetary base.
Once the pandemic and economic crisis passes there is no easy solution to the potential inflation problem arising from more money chasing fewer goods and services. Trying to unwind the Bank’s balance sheet by selling longer-term assets is fraught with political risk. Alternatively, while a floor system could help…
Risk Management Approach Integral to Back-to-Work Strategy: Crisis Working Group on Household Income and Credit Support
April 20, 2020 – Governments must employ a risk management approach to facilitate a gradual reopening of the economy, says the C.D. Howe Institute’s Crisis Working Group on Household Income and Credit Support.
At their April 14 meeting, members agreed that ending the lockdowns and restarting the economy will require a risk management approach on the part of governments, as they balance imperatives related to public health, healthcare utilization, the economy and public finance. Members also recognized that industry can play an enormous role in offering a way forward in the return-to-work strategy.
Best practices surrounding the reopening of the economy should include:
Cooperation across governments in…