The robots are coming! No job is safe! We’ve been hearing this refrain for a while now, describing the latest wave of the technological revolution that has transformed economies everywhere. But is there truly nothing a machine can’t do better than a person?
The robots are coming! No job is safe! We’ve been hearing this refrain for a while now, describing the latest wave of the technological revolution that has transformed economies everywhere. But is there truly nothing a machine can’t do better than a person?
With all that current technology can accomplish, it’s easy for people to assume that robots will be replacing humans in all corners of the workplace. Our latest research for the C.D. Howe Institute — ‘Future Shock? The Impact of Automation on Canada’s Labour Market’ — carefully assesses the evidence.
Our main conclusion: There’s no need to reach for the panic button just yet.
It seems like the federal government agrees with us, as the recent budget took steps to address the “not insurmountable” challenge of the changing nature of work.
To be clear, each technological revolution has been disruptive and the current one will be no exception. So it’s understandable for people to be concerned. Disruption brings about change and uncertainty. But technological change does not inevitably lead to a reduction in human labour.
Our research shows that robots replace skills, not jobs. Thus, in some cases, automation is a complement to human labour, contributing to increased productivity, higher wages and overall economic gains.
In cases where machines and smart software can fully substitute for human labour, it’s more reasonable to assume that automation will happen gradually — taking over specific aspects of a job, rather than replacing it entirely. Moreover — and this is an aspect often overlooked in the debate — automation also helps create new occupations.
A reasoned look at the evidence suggests that there is no imminent threat of massive unemployment due to automation. Canada’s labour market has already been adjusting to technological progress over time. In fact, our analysis shows that over the past 30 years the share of employment in occupations with a low risk of automation has been growing steadily, while the share of employment in occupations highly susceptible to automation has been steadily declining.
As a result, employment in Canada is largely concentrated in industries that have a low risk of automation, accounting for 27.5 per cent of total employment (4.9 million jobs). In contrast, industries with a high concentration of jobs vulnerable to automation account for only 1.7 per cent of employment (310,000 jobs).
That said, some industries will be more disrupted than others. Technical, job-specific skills might become obsolete more quickly. These include such jobs as cashiers, manufacturing line workers and general office administrative staff.
In moderating this process, public policy can help ensure that those under threat have increased opportunities for continuous education and lifelong learning.
Our research highlights some priorities for education and training policy to prepare Canadians for a high-tech future. Occupations with a strong focus on creativity, critical thinking and interpersonal social skills — like nurses, lawyers and engineers — have a relatively low risk of being automated. As a consequence, emphasis should be placed on teaching critical reasoning and interpersonal skills from an early age.
The Canada Jobs Grant and its associated pilot programs in Ontario (‘Upskill’ and ‘Customized training’) are a good start in encouraging employers to train their employees to use new technologies instead of being replaced by them. The recent federal budget modified Employment Insurance to allow unemployed workers to access training without losing the benefit, and proposes to make Canada Student Loans and grants accessible to adult learners.
As the need for life-long learning increases, programs like these will make the workforce less ‘automatable’ while simultaneously helping businesses adopt new technology.
Canada is well positioned to tackle the labour market challenges of technological change with a highly skilled workforce, a diversified economy and existing education and training policies from which to build. With governments in Canada addressing the challenges through changing policy and increasing awareness of the changing nature of work, all in all, the doomsday scenario of a jobless future is nothing to panic about.
Rosalie Wyonch is a policy analyst with the C.D. Howe Institute who specializes in the economic effects of new technology.
Published in iPolitics
