Published in the National Post on National Post on Jan 17, 2011
By John Richards
Dropping out of high school foretells a life marred by lengthy bouts of unemployment and poverty. For Canadians without a high-school certificate, the average employment rate is under 40%; for those with high school, the rate jumps by roughly 25% points.
So, how is Canada doing in terms of lowering dropout rates? Three major reports on Canada’s K-12 school performance released in late 2010 give us an idea of the strength of our education system.
First, according to the OECD’s latest education-indicators report, only 8% of Canadian adults aged 25-34 lack a high-school certificate — compared with the OECD average of 20%.
Second, Statistics Canada reported that our high-school dropout rate declined by half over the last two decades — to 8.5% in 2009/10 among young adults aged 20-24.
Third, in the latest international Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), which evaluates the strength of school programs internationally, Canadian provinces did well on average scores — but not so well on the 10th-percentile scores (which marks the cut-off point for students falling in the lowest 10% of performers).
Poor performance on standardized high-school tests is a powerful indicator of a student subsequently dropping out. The 10th-percentile scores declined in many provinces over the decade: Large declines exist for reading in three provinces (Saskatchewan, Manitoba and PEI), for mathematics in four (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, P.E.I.), for science in two (Manitoba, P.E.I.). (The scores also increased in some provinces, notably Ontario.)
The highest provincial dropout rate (in Quebec) is twice the lowest (in B.C.). (Quebec’s rate is due primarily to a high dropout rate among francophone males.) The rural dropout rate, moreover, is twice the urban rate.
Among First Nations, dropout rates have declined from the 45-plus age cohort to those aged 35-44. But there was no further decline for those under 35. Among First Nation adults in their prime earning years (ages 25-44), a third have no high school certification.
There are no easy solutions to the problem of school dropouts, but there are strategies worth pursuing.
First, children at risk of dropping out in secondary school typically start falling “behind grade” early. For them, good-quality early childhood programs can yield benefits. The benefit of these programs manifests itself most clearly in the case of at-risk families.
Second, sports at school are not a frill. They help engage at-risk students. As well, intensive tutoring programs, such as Pathways to Education, have yielded benefits and, although expensive, deserve support.
Third, aboriginal educators need to recognize the interrelationship of provincial and band-run schools. Currently, four out of five aboriginal children attend provincial schools. For the past generation, aboriginal policy has been viewed primarily from the perspective of treaty rights. It is time to acknowledge that treaties are not a panacea for aboriginal education problems.
Fourth, student peer effects matter. Concentrating at-risk minority-culture students in one or a few schools within a city enables cultural enrichment of the curriculum; it may also exacerbate failure in core academic subjects. Students at high risk of dropping out usually fare better in schools where most students are not at risk and where expectations of academic success prevail.
Finally, it is important to measure education outcomes. Canada has made progress on this front, but opposition to the collection and use of such data is strong. Teachers’ unions frequently lobby to scrap publicly reported system-wide testing. In this regard, Ottawa’s decision to weaken the 2011 census by replacing the mandatory long form with a voluntary one is a mistake. Those less likely to respond to a voluntary survey will be from groups with an above-average risk of children dropping out of school.
In summary, overall declining national dropout rates are good news, but no reason for complacency.
John Richards teaches in the Public Policy School at Simon Fraser University and is the author of “School Dropouts: Who Are They and What can Be Done?” published recently by the C.D. Howe Institute.
