-A A +A

October 30, 2024 – A new Advisory Group on Immigration Targets convened by the C.D. Howe Institute has concluded after its first meeting that Canada’s immigration system requires reform to better balance population growth with the country’s economic capacity — and that means at least a gradual reduction in immigrant intake in the coming years. 

The group, which had its inaugural session earlier this month, emphasized that the immigration system’s primary goal should be to create a more prosperous, not merely more populous, Canada. Members stressed the need for a stable, transparent immigration policy that prioritizes high-skilled immigrants, addresses housing and healthcare challenges, and restores public confidence.

Although there was broad agreement on lowering overall immigration levels, the group was divided on the pace and extent of these reductions. Some members emphasized the importance of sustained immigration to counter Canada’s aging population and low fertility rates, while others argued that immigration alone could not fully address these demographic challenges and that housing shortages should be prioritized. Some suggested an annual target of 0.6 to 0.8 percent of Canada’s total population by 2030. 

Members discussed the need to balance permanent and temporary immigration. Several participants expressed concern about Canada’s increasing reliance on non-permanent residents (NPRs), raising questions about their integration and pathways to permanent residency. However, the majority pointed to the difficulty of reducing NPRs in the short term, saying lowering their numbers drastically could pose risks to the economy and Canada's future workforce.

The discussion also covered the composition of permanent immigration categories, which include economic class, family sponsorship, refugee, and humanitarian. While no specific recommendations were made regarding changes to the allocation among categories, there was broad agreement on returning to a human-capital-focused strategy for economic immigration.

The Members of C.D. Howe Institute Advisory Group on Immigration Targets include:

  • Pierre Fortin, Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Claudia Hepburn, Windmill Microlending
  • Daniel Hiebert, University of British Columbia
  • Michael Haan, Western University
  • Jason Kenney, Bennett Jones LLP
  • Mikal Skuterud, University of Waterloo
  • Christopher Worswick, Carleton University

Convener:

  • Parisa Mahboubi, C.D. Howe Institute 

Read the Full Report

For more information contact: Parisa Mahboubi, Senior Policy Analyst, C.D. Howe Institute; and Daniel Kitts, Communications Officer, C.D. Howe Institute, 416-220-8470, dkitts@cdhowe.org

The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada’s most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review.