Whew. Canadians are showing unalloyed relief with the results of the U.S. election, ending four year’s worth of chaos, unpredictability and antagonism under President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda. The tone of the bilateral relationship will change 180 degrees under a Joe Biden presidency.
Yet when it comes to trade, there are some hard facts that give reason to temper some of this enthusiasm. Here is a short list of items – some good, some not so good – to consider in the days ahead.
SUPPORT FOR MULTILATERALISMThe Biden administration will reverse Mr. Trump’s disdain and disregard for the World Trade Organization and the multilateral system generally.
We can look to the United States removing its veto over…
Last week’s quarterly “Monetary Policy Report” (MPR) from the Bank of Canada sketched the long and likely winding road Canada’s economy needs to travel before it gets back to where it was pre-pandemic. And, with it, the long road inflation will have to take to return to its target rate of two per cent.
At the same time, the bank announced it would hold the target overnight rate of interest at its effective lower bound of 25 basis points (i.e., 0.25 per cent), “until economic slack is absorbed so that the two per cent inflation target is sustainably achieved,” which the bank estimates will not happen until sometime in 2023.
This amounts to “forward guidance” about the path of the overnight rate target — an effort to reduce…
Le Canada déploie le plus grand effort financier de toutes les économies avancées pour lutter contre la crise, effort que permet son endettement le plus faible. Dans l’ampleur comme dans la manière, il suit à la lettre les prescriptions du Fonds monétaire international (FMI). Il y a pourtant lieu de craindre un excès de zèle à Ottawa.
Le Moniteur des finances publiques, publié lors des récentes assemblées annuelles du FMI et de la Banque mondiale, tenues conjointement à Washington, permet de comparer la situation du Canada avec celle des autres pays développés.
Selon le FMI, le Canada enregistrera en 2020 un déficit de 19,9 % de son PIB, le pourcentage le plus élevé des économies avancées, dont le déficit moyen sera…
