The weekend brought good news and early signs the COVID-19 curve may be flattening. The number of new cases has slowed and the numbers of COVID-19 patients hospitalized and in the ICU have stabilized.
Current ICU utilization remains well under the best-case scenario projections, and while it’s still early, it appears likely that we will not have the same surge that overwhelmed New York and Italy.
Canada has avoided the fate of other jurisdictions through strong public health measures and physical distancing. Flattening the curve has involved shutting down or moving large portions of our society online: schools, universities, retail, and the justice system.
In the healthcare sector non-emergency ambulatory care was…
Since the COVID-19 crisis began, yield spreads for provincial 10-year bonds over equivalent federal debt have increased by about 100 basis points across all provinces. Some provinces — Newfoundland, for example — are in even worse shape. To ease funding pressures on the governments that are on the front line in health care and social assistance we need a two-pronged approach in which the Bank of Canada addresses disruption in the debt markets, and an overhauled federal fiscal backstop helps provinces still in need.
The Bank of Canada is already providing liquidity to the provinces by purchasing short-term provincial debt, thus helping alleviate rollover concerns. It has also embarked on a large-scale asset purchase program —…
Last Friday’s grim labour-force numbers from Statistics Canada were just the latest evidence that COVID-19 is a threat not only to Canadians’ lives, but to our livelihoods. And those numbers predated the more complete shutdown that has closed so many businesses over the past three weeks.
By now, the tally of lost jobs will be in the millions. More people will be working reduced hours, earning less and fearing for the future. Even with government supports, bankruptcies are mounting, and temporary closures and layoffs are becoming permanent. The longer this lasts, the deeper and harder to repair the damage becomes.
As the seriousness of the novel coronavirus became clear, public health naturally took priority.…
