It has been a full decade since the last recession, which accompanied the 2008-09 financial crisis. The global and domestic economies are at a mature stage of the economic cycle, and numerous excesses are evident. Not surprisingly, there is a recurring buzz from international and a few domestic commentators on recession risk and who will be affected. Accurately predicting is tricky but there are plenty of reasons to be concerned.
Let’s consider two key questions on the next recession. First, what will cause it? A combination of negative factors occurring in close proximity will be the most likely cause. The next Canadian recession is unlikely to be because of slamming on the monetary brakes to defeat inflation, as arguably…
The Draft Master Innovation and Development Plan released by Sidewalk Labs in late June could breathe life into Toronto’s comatose plans for a light rail line to the city’s eastern waterfront.
Waterfront Toronto’s 2017 request for proposals, which brought Sidewalk Labs onto the local scene as the developer of the eastern waterfront property, sought help in planning and funding an LRT from Union Station along Queens Quay East. Sidewalk Lab’s draft plan proposes to invest $100 million in the project, to be repaid from higher property tax revenues that the LRT will help create.
If Waterfront Toronto and the city can agree on the terms, a growth-spurring LRT could be an early and critical benefit from the entire…
The Bank of Canada normally responds to the threat of a large recession by aggressively cutting interest rates. It won’t be able to use this strategy the next time around: short-term interest rates would hit zero before the job is done. Instead, the Bank will have to rely on large-scale purchases of long-term financial assets (quantitative easing) and a big depreciation of the Canadian exchange rate. While helpful, these policies are unlikely to be as effective as the Bank’s traditional strategy for fighting recessions.
The Bank’s benchmark-interest rate is now only 1.75 per cent, well below its level of 4.5 per cent on the eve of the 2007 financial crisis. Long-term interest rates are even lower. There is no reason to expect…
