Published in TVO Today.
Ontario's upcoming fall economic statement presents the Ford government with an opportunity for strategic policy announcements ahead of a possible 2025 election. Traditionally an update on the province’s fiscal outlook, this year’s FES is likely to be shaped more than usual by political considerations — for example, the government plans to issue a $200 cheque to every Ontarian.
The Ford administration faces a delicate balancing act: introducing new initiatives while keeping an eye on provincial finances amid economic uncertainties. At a minimum, the FES offers insight into the government’s fiscal outlook and reports on key policy priorities. It should also tell us whether the province is focused on…
Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler - The Bank of Canada must loosen monetary policy at a faster pace
Published in the Globe and Mail.
The inflation beast is looking considerably weaker. Between the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement on Sept. 4 and its announcement on Wednesday, Statistics Canada released two of its monthly reports on the consumer price index. They showed that headline inflation fell by almost a full percentage point and is now well below target.
For this reason, markets were not surprised by the 50-basis point cut in the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate target. The cut was fully baked into market expectations, and there was even speculation about a supersized cut of 75 basis points.
As it is, the bank has more work to do with its overnight rate. With inflation falling faster than the policy rate,…
Brian Lewis - With an election on the horizon, Ford should resist the allure of costly new policies
Published in TVO Today.
Ontario's forthcoming fall economic statement has garnered increased interest as speculation mounts over a potential provincial election in spring 2025. While the FES is traditionally a routine update on the province's fiscal and economic status, this year's seems likely to serve as a platform for early, strategic pre-election policy announcements. Look no further than the reporting that emerged last week indicating that the government is poised to send out cheques worth at least $200 to every Ontarian.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver the update on October 30, two weeks earlier than is legally required. Amid signs of economic and fiscal improvement, the province faces…
