We won’t make Ottawa’s 2030 emissions targets and it won’t even be close – Financial Post Op-Ed
Last March, Ottawa announced its target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. It wants to reduce them from 740 million tonnes (MT) of CO2-equivalent in 2019 to 442 MT in 2030, a reduction of 298 MT, or 40 per cent. Unfortunately, setting targets is a lot easier than hitting them. Ottawa’s Emissions Reduction Plan is long on policies and programs but short on what will actually need to happen in order to reach these targets.
My own analysis, available on the C. D. Howe Institute website, suggests the 2030 reduction will be, at best, only 158 MT — only a little over halfway to Ottawa’s target.
I get this result with fact-based, bottom-up calculations. Consider …
China’s disruptive behaviour had de-stabilized the global trading order well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February. Such geopolitical trends, among others, have converged to produce tectonic shifts in international business as we go forward into 2023.
So, what does this mean for what still remains of the post-Second World War rules-based trading system?
For starters, the World Trade Organization, the body that oversees the multilateral system, is under considerable stress. In spite of exhortations at its ministerial meeting last June and a recent plea from its director-general, the WTO has floundered over the past few years.
The problems are deeply entrenched. The WTO is mired in internal governance…
When everyone understands the role they play, this leads to better public policy. For our monetary and fiscal authorities, this means central bankers ensuring a stable value for the currency they oversee, and governments creating the conditions for strong economic growth.
Unfortunately, we lack that in Canada right now, with inflation as high as it has been in 40 years, and an economy potentially heading toward a recession. The Bank of Canada is working hard to bring down inflation. If governments were indeed boosting the economy’s potential, it would make the bank’s job a heck of a lot easier.
With mandates that target inflation – and ones that target maximum sustainable employment as well, such as that of…
