Last week, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, to 4.25 per cent, in line with market expectations of either a 25- or 50-basis-point increase. No surprises there.
The real news was the change in the tone brought by the announcement. Of late, the bank has repeatedly warned Canadians that more rate hikes were coming. Now, further tightening will “depend on the data.”
We think this is a welcome development – and not just because it means the potential end of the tightening cycle, but because the bank gives itself more wiggle room in a very uncertain environment.
More definite statements can be problematic. Back in the second half of 2020, with the overnight rate at its lower bound, the…
Higher interest rates will cause a recession – how do we pick up the pieces? – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
While many have challenged the pace of the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate hikes, their likelihood of success and the extent to which further increases are merited, it has already become clear that, regardless, a recession is imminent. And while it remains to be seen how deep and how long that recession will be, there is no question it will hurt some more than others.
Will governments be there to pick up the pieces and manage the consequences of higher interest rates? If so, how, and in what ways can they help, given their rather precarious fiscal position, with Ottawa carrying $1.1-trillion in debt?
Among the many things that concern us are the distributional impacts of the looming downturn – some groups are…
Before the federal government’s Fall Economic Statement last month, we often heard words like “restraint” and “prudence.” Less so afterwards. The statement’s projections confirm that every new forecast from Ottawa shows the federal government getting bigger faster, with every area of spending swelling more by the year.
The government’s last pre-COVID projections were in its 2019 fall statement. The final fiscal year in those projections was 2024/25, when federal spending was slated to hit $421 billion.
The government used the pandemic as an excuse to present no budget in 2020, an unprecedented failure for it and for Parliament as a whole. It did present a fall statement late in the year, however. To compare that…
