À 5,1 %, l’inflation est au plus haut depuis 30 ans, bien au-delà de la cible de 2 %. Malheureusement, il n’y a rien que le Banque puisse faire pour juguler l’inflation actuelle. Les changements de taux prennent de 18 mois à deux ans pour produire leurs pleins effets.
L’annonce des premières augmentations de 25 points de base (100 points égalent 1 %) aura avant tout un but psychologique : montrer que la Banque est déterminée à mater l’inflation. Le gouverneur Tiff Macklem veut éviter qu’elle ne s’incruste dans les esprits et ne modifie durablement les comportements.
Des sondages auprès des consommateurs et des entreprises, ainsi que le marché à terme des taux d’intérêt, reflètent encore l…
Statistics Canada’s inflation report last week showed the consumer price index up 5.1 per cent year-over-year in January – more than forecasters and markets expected and more than the Bank of Canada’s latest projections implied. That’s not new: the CPI has risen more than expected most of the past year.
Expectations about how the Bank of Canada will raise its target for the overnight rate in response have also moved up – somewhat. Few forecasters and investors seem to expect an overnight rate above two per cent, at least not until well into 2023. But Canadians would be wise to prepare for an overnight rate of three per cent or more well before that.
The prospect of interest rates being higher than expected follows directly…
Earlier this month, the Alberta government launched a NAFTA investment arbitration suit against the United States, seeking $1.3-billion as compensation for President Joe Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. TC Energy, the company behind KXL, has filed its own NAFTA case, but Alberta is now seeking compensation for the province’s investment in the pipeline.
The case is groundbreaking because for the first time it involves one government – albeit a provincial one – suing another government under the North American free-trade agreement investment provisions. This has implications for other investment disputes around the world.
When the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement replaced NAFTA on July 1, 2020, it…
