Op-Eds
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), once a relatively obscure branch of macroeconomics, has recently gained star status. It is riding high in the popular press in the U.S. and has been endorsed by many in the left wing of the Democratic party as a way of financing massive spending programs such as the “Green New Deal” and “Medicare for All.” MMT holds that a country with its own currency doesn’t have to worry about accumulating government debt: it can always print money to service the interest on its debt and pay down the principal. If this seems like magical thinking, it’s probably because it is.
MMT’s basis is that fiscal policy is the key to achieving full employment, using the printing of money to finance government spending. (“…
Senator Diane Bellemare has launched an inquiry into revising the Bank of Canada Act to add full employment to the bank’s mandate. Senator Bellemare’s inquiry appears to reflect a view that the bank’s current framework – expressed in periodic agreements with the Parliament of Canada – of pursuing 2-per-cent inflation is deficient, and that requiring the bank to pursue an explicit goal related to jobs would improve it.
An alternative take on the situation is that the current framework is a sensible and highly successful way for the bank to pursue its existing mandate – which is in the Bank of Canada Act and already refers, among other goals, to mitigating fluctuations in employment and promoting the economic and…
As expected, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate target constant at 1.75 per cent this week.
More unexpectedly, with the release of its latest Monetary Policy Report, the central bank lowered its estimate of the neutral nominal rate – the rate compatible with full-capacity output and inflation equal to the 2-per-cent target – to 2.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent, from 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent. This means that the constant overnight target rate is closer to the neutral rate than previously thought, providing less stimulus to the economy. As the lower end of the range gets closer to 2 per cent, meaning the real neutral rate would be zero, it is fair to ask how much lower the neutral rate can go.
From a data…
There are signs of strain in the Bank of Canada’s monetary-policy framework that has served Canadians so well over the past quarter-century, delivering low and stable inflation.
Apparently aware of the challenges ahead, the bank’s senior deputy governor, Carolyn Wilkins, went so far as to say in a recent speech that the bank will review all its policy options leading up to the next renewal (in 2021) of the inflation-control agreement between the federal government and the Bank of Canada. While some cracks are appearing, we would argue tweaks are all that is required.
The Bank of Canada has targeted inflation since 1991 and kept the target at two per cent since 1996. The inflation-targeting framework has delivered stable…
It’s been a decade since the collapse of Lehman Brothers sparked the 2008-09 global financial crisis and recession. The global economy is finally performing at a robust level, with solid output and employment growth in many regions and interest rates generally on the rise toward more normal levels. The acute pain felt during the financial crisis, and the protracted period of recovery, should have encouraged policy-makers and their voters to take meaningful steps to avoid a repeat performance. But have lessons been learned?
One positive outcome was the innovative application of monetary policy. Central banks were the reliable backbone of the policy response to the financial crisis; exceptional and prolonged monetary stimulus and…
