Fiscal and Tax Policy - Op Eds

Published in The Globe and Mail. 

Canadian governments are loudly zealous about protecting us from potentially addictive stuff that could hurt our physical and mental health – think of junk food, booze and other drugs, or misinformation and other online “harms.” Yet they themselves are pushing fiscal junk. The federal government’s latest – a goods and services tax holiday from mid-December to mid-February, 2025, and a $250 handout to everyone with earned income under $150,000 – is yet another feel-good move that undermines our fiscal and economic health.

As with the Ontario government’s recent pledge of a $200 handout for its taxpayers, one big question is: Will the bribe buy the government a bounce in the polls? If…

Published in the Financial Post. 

April’s federal budget announced significant changes to capital gains taxes, projecting an additional $10.6 billion in corporate income tax (CIT) and $8.8 billion in personal income tax (PIT) over the next five years. But our recent analysis shows these estimates are highly uncertain and rest on a number of assumptions that may not hold true. As Parliament considers enshrining these tax changes into law, legislators should look beyond projected revenues and focus on ensuring that tax policy supports the healthy and dynamic economy Canadians need.

Effective June 25, the capital gains inclusion rate for corporations rose from one-half to two-thirds. For individual taxpayers, only gains…

Published in TVO Today.

Ontario's upcoming fall economic statement presents the Ford government with an opportunity for strategic policy announcements ahead of a possible 2025 election. Traditionally an update on the province’s fiscal outlook, this year’s FES is likely to be shaped more than usual by political considerations — for example, the government plans to issue a $200 cheque to every Ontarian.

The Ford administration faces a delicate balancing act: introducing new initiatives while keeping an eye on provincial finances amid economic uncertainties. At a minimum, the FES offers insight into the government’s fiscal outlook and reports on key policy priorities. It should also tell us whether the province is focused on…

Published in TVO Today. 

Ontario's forthcoming fall economic statement has garnered increased interest as speculation mounts over a potential provincial election in spring 2025. While the FES is traditionally a routine update on the province's fiscal and economic status, this year's seems likely to serve as a platform for early, strategic pre-election policy announcements.  Look no further than the reporting that emerged last week indicating that the government is poised to send out cheques worth at least $200 to every Ontarian.

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver the update on October 30, two weeks earlier than is legally required. Amid signs of economic and fiscal improvement, the province faces…

Published in the Financial Post

Pierre Poilievre has a slogan for fixing the budget: “pay as you go.” Though less catchy than “axe the tax,” it’s more likely to make Canadians better off. The Conservatives are pledging to balance the budget by reining in spending. A pay-as-you-go law would require new spending to be offset by reductions in existing spending.

Details of the spending cuts and the pay-as-you-go law are promised for the election campaign. Here’s some unsolicited advice on what the platform should say.

To begin with, a pay-as-you go law presupposes the existence of a cap on spending that would force new initiatives to be funded through reallocations. As I discuss in a recent C.D. Howe Institute paper, this…