Council Reports
March 27, 2024 - Canada avoided a recession in the last two years but risks remain for 2024, according to the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council (BCC).
In "So Far, So Good: C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council Declares Recession Avoided in 2022, 2023," members of the BCC examined if a recession had occurred in the past two years and found that the Canadian economy did not fulfill the conditions required to indicate a recession.
C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council (BCC) is an authoritative arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The BCC meets when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession and acts as a conduit for research aimed at developing a deeper…
August 24, 2021 - The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council, Canada’s main arbiter of business cycle dates, has declared an end to the COVID-19 recession.
The Council decided on August 9 to declare an end to the recession that began in March 2020. It judged that the recovery from the recession is now prolonged and sustained enough to declare that the trough of the recession occurred in April 2020, making this the shortest and deepest recession since the Great Depression that began in 1929.
In March and April 2020, there were unprecedented falls in economic activity. April GDP was 17.7 percent below its level in February 2020. The Council declared on May 1, 2020, that Canada entered a recession in the first quarter…
December 17, 2020 – Despite economic recovery since April, it is too early to call the end of the recession, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council report.
The Council, comprised of Canada’s preeminent economists in the field and co-chaired by Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council typically meets annually, but also when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession.
The Council met on December 7 to review the case for calling April 2020 as the end of the recession based on signs of economic recovery since then.
Entering and exiting a recession implies a change in the direction of economic…
