Business Cycle - Op Eds

In the book Zombie Economics, John Quiggin explained how dead ideas – assumptions about market economics refuted by the 2008-09 financial crisis – live on in the minds of many people, including those charged with cleaning up the mess. While not supported by evidence or analysis, these narratives persist as “dead ideas that still walk among us.” Why? Largely because they advance the interests of particular (typically elite) groups who want to believe in them and make them true.

Likewise, corporate governance best practices are typically based on intuition, opinion and rhetoric. Such thinking has been elevated – mandated by regulators and rated by a burgeoning class of governance experts for whom such standards become self-…

In its November Fall Economic Statement, the federal government presented a long-term projection that shows its debt ratio — that is, federal debt divided by GDP — declining smoothly over the next 30 years. But this outcome follows from overly optimistic assumptions about interest rates and program spending, and a decision to ignore the impact of recessions, which are certain to happen in any 30-year period. Taking such a rosy approach to debt sustainability allows the government to avoid making the hard choices on spending and taxes that no government likes.

Ottawa’s analysis assumes the effective interest rate on federal debt remains below the growth rate of the economy from now all the way to 2055-56. This sunny…

While many have challenged the pace of the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate hikes, their likelihood of success and the extent to which further increases are merited, it has already become clear that, regardless, a recession is imminent. And while it remains to be seen how deep and how long that recession will be, there is no question it will hurt some more than others.

Will governments be there to pick up the pieces and manage the consequences of higher interest rates? If so, how, and in what ways can they help, given their rather precarious fiscal position, with Ottawa carrying $1.1-trillion in debt?

Among the many things that concern us are the distributional impacts of the looming downturn – some groups are…

On November 22, 2022, as part of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce’s Ontario Economic Summit, The Hub’s executive director Rudyard Griffiths moderated a “Munk-style” debate involving Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coyne, C.D. Howe Institute CEO Bill Robson, former Ontario Cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello, and The Hub’s own editor-at-large Sean Speer. The debate’s resolution read: Be It Resolved: Ontario Needs Reshoring as Part of Its Growth Agenda. Pupatello and Speer argued in favour of the motion. Coyne and Robson against it.

Thanks to the organizers for inviting us here to debate this very important question. Our worthy opponents, Sandra and Sean, make a very valiant case in favour of reshoring as part of Ontario’s growth…

The retail trade data for February, released Friday, show a continuing rebound in in-person shopping relative to the online variety, as people-to-people interactions emerged from restrictions imposed during the pandemic.

Retail e-commerce — which includes when goods purchased online are subsequently picked up in a store — was a lifeline for Canadian businesses in 2020. But in-store shopping has come back with a vengeance. Despite the emergence of high-profile online suppliers, fierce competition remains the order of the day in retail.

Since peaking at 10 per cent of total sales by Canadian retailers in the first days of the pandemic, e-commerce’s share of retail sales has fallen sharply — to just over five…