Behind Canada’s Declining Math Performance and the Evidence-Based Fix

January 13, 2026 – For over a decade, math scores on international tests have declined across all Canadian provinces. On the 2023 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) assessment, Grade 4 Canadian students performed below the international average on nearly every benchmark level. Given the strong link between early math achievement and later academic success, earnings, and careers in sectors such as science, technology, and finance, this decline represents an urgent national challenge, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute.

In “Getting Math Instruction Right: Strategies for Improving Achievement in Canada,” Anna Stokke warns that seven provinces declined more than 40 points on the Program of International Student Assessment (PISA) since 2003, equivalent to about two years of lost learning, while the share of students performing at the lowest levels in math has more than doubled in most provinces. She urges provincial governments to act, outlining practical, evidence-based solutions to reverse the downward trend and help ensure Canada remains globally competitive.

“Since Canada already spends more per student on education than the OECD average, funding alone is unlikely to improve math achievement,” said Stokke, a math professor at the University of Winnipeg. “For example, Japan spends about 14 percent less per student and gets much better results. Refocusing resources rather than increasing spending is more likely to be effective.”

The report highlights two low-cost, high-impact reforms that provinces can implement immediately: a mandatory multiplication tables check by the end of Grade 4, and universal screening in math for all K-8 students. These measures would identify students who are falling behind before gaps compound, enable early intervention, and send a clear signal that math fact fluency matters for later success.

Stokke recommends engaging experts in the science of learning to ensure instruction is aligned with high-quality research evidence, including prioritizing explicit, teacher-led instruction over inquiry or discovery-based approaches. 

“For too long, teachers have been told that inquiry-based instruction works best in math,” said Stokke. “That claim is not supported by high-quality research. Explicit, teacher-led instruction is most effective, especially for novice learners and students with math difficulties,” said Stokke.

The report further recommends strengthening standardized testing, setting clear evidence standards for instructional programs, directing funding toward programs shown to improve math achievement, improving math curricula, and requiring stronger math content knowledge for K-8 teachers.

Finally, Stokke warns that reforms will fail without leaders willing to change course. “When implementers are invested in maintaining the status quo, they often undermine meaningful reform," she said. “Governments must appoint leaders who support evidence-based practices and hold them accountable for the results.”

“Our students deserve an education that gives them strong mathematical foundations and prepares them for a wide range of careers in a math-driven economy, and we can’t afford to wait,” said Stokke. “The time to fix math instruction in Canada is now, and it will take committed leadership and evidence-based policies to reverse this decline and set students up for long-term success.”

Read the Full Report

For more information, contact: Anna Stokke, Professor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Winnipeg; Raquel Schneider, Communications Officer, C.D. Howe Institute, 647-805-3918, rschneider@cdhowe.org.

The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada’s most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review.

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