Slipping Student Assessment Scores Could Presage “Shock”

March 25, 2025 – While Canadian students rank among the top ten in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), there is cause for concern. A new report from the C.D. Howe Institute finds that our students’ scores in reading, mathematics, and science have been consistently slipping since initial benchmarking in the early 2000s.

In “The Case of the Boiling Frogs: Provincial Indifference to Declining Education Outcomes,” John Richards finds that in addition to learning loss during the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s results in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s assessment have been sliding for years. “Like the proverbial frogs slowly boiling in water, Canadian provinces are at risk of ignoring their education problems, as happened in Sweden a decade ago – and is currently taking place in many US states,” says Richards.

Notably, 500 is the average benchmarking score in each subject and Canada’s initial scores in the test for all three subject areas were previously well above this mark. However, in the 2022 survey, all three Canadian scores are now significantly below initial scores.

“Canada’s mathematics score came in at 497 in the most recent survey – this should be a warning sign to provincial ‘boiling frogs,’” says Richards.

Further, Richards warns, weighted by population, the declines from the benchmark scores to 2022 are larger among Canada’s six small-population provinces (Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, PEI and Saskatchewan) than our four large-population provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec). This means that the gaps between our country’s large and small provinces is widening.

The weighted declines among the large provinces from the benchmark year to 2022 are -34 for math, -26 for reading, and -19 for science. Meanwhile, the comparable declines among the small provinces are -50 for math, followed by -38 for reading, and -27 for science.

“Small provinces have experienced a substantial decline in mathematics performance, equivalent to losing 2.5 years of schooling since 2003,” says Richards. “This decline is nearly one year greater than that observed in large provinces over the same period.”

In addition, there is a decline of the level of mathematics knowledge among all provinces – except Quebec. For the first time, a province (Newfoundland and Labrador) has fallen below the 2022 average PISA mathematics score among OECD countries.

One option to improve students’ success is to take a page out of Quebec’s mathematics book. The province has more rigorous teacher training, which has translated into higher scores for students. Additionally, he says provinces with lower high school scores could benefit from adopting British Columbia’s tradition of publicizing school district assessments.

Richards suggests a provincial government or a parents’ association could provoke a “shock” due to regional PISA score declines – with the most justifiable province being Newfoundland and Labrador. Further, he says the Council of Ministers of Education in Canada could facilitate a coordinated response among provinces to improve students outcomes, with a particular focus on Indigenous students in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where they represent approximately 30 percent of the student population.

“Canada’s learning loss during the COVID pandemic, combined with previous declines from the initial benchmark scores, should be sufficient catalyst for improving Canadian K-12 education outcomes,” says Richards. “Canada’s future human capital depends on it.”

Read the Full Report

For more information contact: John Richards, Emeritus Professor, Simon Fraser University and Research Fellow, C.D. Howe Institute; and Lauren Malyk, Manager, Communications, C.D. Howe Institute, 416-873-6168 or lmalyk@cdhowe.org