The Alberta Referendum: What's at Stake

On October 19, Albertans will vote on 10 referendum questions, including whether Alberta should begin the legal process to hold a binding referendum to separate from Canada.

In the lead up to the Alberta referendum, the C.D. Howe Institute is bringing together evidence-based perspectives on the potential consequences of Alberta leaving Confederation.

Introducing the Series

From Talking Points to Realities

Jeremy M. Kronick and Kate Koplovich | September 14, 2026

Canada is at a pivotal moment in its history. We are repositioning ourselves as a country open to investment. But we do so alongside headwinds. Trade uncertainty with our largest trading partner brings a changing geopolitical and economic reality that is forcing the country to rethink what and how we produce and trade, and now an internal conflict is testing the strength of our diverse federation of governments and its division of powers.

It is within this context that Albertans go to the polls on October 19, faced with 10 referendum questions. Five of these focus on immigration and citizenship; four on the Canadian constitution and provincial rights and jurisdiction; and the final question asks whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada, or commence the legal process required under the Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum to separate from Canada.

Featured Event

Intelligence Memos

Intelligence Memos

The Important Monetary Policy Considerations for a Seceding Alberta

Charles St-Arnaud
From: Charles St-Arnaud
Intelligence Memos

The Separation Effect on Labour Markets – Part Two – Labour Demand

Joseph Marchand 
Following in the wake of the 121st Alberta Day and 133rd Labour Day, the evaluation of Alberta’s possible separation on its labour markets seems well timed this September, prior to the October 19 referendum.
Intelligence Memos

The Separation Effect on Labour Markets – Part One – Labour Supply

Joseph Marchand 
To: Alberta referendum voters  
Intelligence Memos

Whither Exports in a Sovereign Alberta?

Herbert Emery
To: Alberta referendum voters 
Intelligence Memos

Alberta’s International Competitiveness: An Economic Perspective on the Referendum Debate 

Edy Wong
To: Alberta referendum voters  
Intelligence Memos

Monetary Aspects of Alberta Separation

Rhys Mendes, John Murray
To: Alberta referendum voters 
Intelligence Memos

Fiscal Redistribution in Canada: Better Principled Than the Debate Suggests

Brian Lewis, Yiming Sun
To: Concerned Canadians From: Brian Lewis and Yiming Sun Date: September 14, 2025 Re: Fiscal Redistribution in Canada: Better Principled Than the Debate Suggests 

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