Alberta’s International Competitiveness: An Economic Perspective on the Referendum Debate 

To: Alberta referendum voters  

From: Edy Wong  

Date: September 16, 2026  

Re: Alberta’s International Competitiveness: An Economic Perspective on the Referendum Debate 

This is the third in a series the C.D. Howe Institute is presenting to better inform the public about the policy issues and complexities of the potential separation of Alberta, and its consequences on Albertans, businesses and the rest of Canada. Today: International trade. 

Whatever the outcome of the October 19 referendum, one objective should unite Albertans: Building a prosperous and resilient economy. 

For a province whose prosperity depends heavily on international trade, economic sovereignty ultimately rests on the ability to compete successfully in global markets. Whatever political arrangement Albertans ultimately choose should therefore be judged, in part, by how effectively it strengthens Alberta’s international competitiveness and access to world markets. 

International competitiveness is built on three mutually reinforcing pillars: Supply-side competitiveness, demand-side competitiveness, and the institutional framework that supports both. 

Alberta's prosperity depends on exports. It exported more than $186 billion of goods in 2025, including oil and natural gas, agricultural products such as wheat, canola, and beef, and manufactured goods such as machinery and plastics. However, most of these exports go to a single destination – the United States. While the United States will remain Alberta's most important trading partner, greater diversification would reduce dependence on a single market and create opportunities for sustained growth. 

Recent developments suggest trade diversification is both realistic and achievable. Alberta’s exports to Asia grew from $6.8 billion in 2014 to $16.3 billion in 2025, with exports to its four largest Asian trading partners – China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore – doubling over the same period. Completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline in 2024 further strengthened Alberta’s access to overseas energy markets, with nearly two-thirds of the tankers loaded in Burnaby destined for Asia. Together with emerging opportunities in Europe, these developments demonstrate that Alberta’s long-standing objective of export diversification is becoming more attainable. 

Diversification, however, requires more than finding new customers. Alberta must also serve them reliably. For a landlocked, resource-based economy, export competitiveness depends on efficient transportation infrastructure, reliable market access, and resilient supply chains. Pipelines, railways, ports, intermodal facilities, and trade corridors are therefore strategic economic infrastructure. As a price-taking commodity producer, Alberta competes not only on product quality but also on its ability to deliver consistently and efficiently. 

Geography makes this challenge especially relevant. Alberta competes against major agricultural and energy exporters in the United States, South America, Australia, the Middle East, and elsewhere. Unlike many of these competitors, Alberta is landlocked. Every tonne of grain, every barrel of oil, and every petrochemical shipment must travel hundreds of kilometres before reaching tidewater. Alberta’s ability to compete and diversify internationally therefore depends heavily on an efficient logistics system. 

Overcoming this geographic disadvantage requires sustained investment in the infrastructure that connects to global markets. Because many of these critical assets lie beyond Alberta’s borders, that investment requires coordination with other governments, infrastructure providers, and private investors. 

Independence could give Alberta greater control over infrastructure approvals and investment policy, but it would not give the province greater control over the transportation corridors and ports beyond its borders on which international trade ultimately depends. Alberta would therefore continue to depend on neighbouring jurisdictions, particularly British Columbia and the United States, for access to international markets. 

Product availability alone, however, does not create exports. In an era of geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain disruption, buyers increasingly value reliability, resilience, and trusted long-term partnerships. Major buyers of energy and critical resources increasingly pursue supply stability through strategic partnerships that include investment in production, transportation infrastructure, and downstream processing. Foreign investment has therefore become an integral part of trade strategy. 

Creating demand for Alberta’s exports will rely as much on trust and long-term cooperation as on competitive products. Long-term purchase agreements and investment partnerships benefit from political stability, predictable regulation, effective diplomacy, and government-to-government cooperation. This is where the federal government can make a significant contribution to Alberta’s long-term competitiveness. 

If supply-side competitiveness depends on infrastructure, and demand-side competitiveness on long-term commercial and political relationships, Alberta’s economic future also depends on the institutional framework within which those relationships are built. 

Independence would create greater political autonomy, but it would also raise questions about the continuity of market access Alberta currently enjoys as part of Canada. 

Alberta could not prudently assume that it would simply inherit Canada’s existing trade, investment, and other international agreements. Maintaining comparable access to the United States and other major markets could require negotiation with Canada’s trading partners. 

The relevant economic question is therefore not simply whether independence would give Alberta greater control over economic policy, but whether that additional control would compensate for the physical and institutional advantages Alberta currently obtains through Canada. If Albertans conclude that remaining within Canada offers the best long-term opportunity for international competitiveness, Confederation must in turn demonstrate its economic value to Alberta. 

Recent federal initiatives have begun to address some of these constraints, but the appropriate test is whether they are sufficient to materially improve Alberta’s international competitiveness. For a landlocked export economy seeking greater market diversification, incremental improvements may not be enough. Many of the priorities are already well recognized. They include: 

• accelerating approvals for development of trade infrastructure; 

• expanding West Coast port capacity and transportation corridors; 

• increasing intermodal transportation capacity; 

• supporting and attracting foreign investment in strategic resource and infrastructure projects; 

• pursuing trade and investment agreements that expand Alberta’s access to Asian and European markets; and 

• recognizing Alberta's contribution to Canada's export economy through its energy, agriculture, and resource industries. 

Alberta’s economic future will depend on its ability to compete in an increasingly demanding global marketplace. Building that competitiveness requires more than abundant natural resources. It requires efficient infrastructure, reliable international partnerships, and policies that attract long-term investment. Without investment in infrastructure and stable institutional relationships, Alberta’s ability to compete and diversify will remain constrained. 

A successful federation should enable each region to build on its comparative advantages. For Alberta, that means helping a landlocked export economy compete more effectively in global markets. 

Edy Wong is associate dean, international at the Alberta School of Business at the University of Alberta.  

To send a comment or leave feedback, email us at blog@cdhowe.org.  

The views expressed here are those of the author. The C.D. Howe Institute does not take corporate positions on policy matters.