Business Cycle Council Communique – December 2018
The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council met on Tuesday December 11, 2018 to review its assessments of Canadian business cycle dates. The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, co-chaired by Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council meets on an annual basis, or as warranted […]Bank of Canada buys itself some breathing room on interest rates – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Markets were not surprised by today’s Bank of Canada announcement to hike its overnight target rate by 25 basis points to 1.5 per cent. They had factored in a very high probability of an increase. And, consistent with a stated desire to improve its communications with both market participants and “the soccer dad,” it was a speech and a press conference that set the stage.
Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech on June 27 was an important factor in moving market expectations. By the end of the news conference that followed his speech, markets were confident of a hike. The theme of the speech was transparency and communications. By significantly shifting market expectations in the direction of a rate hike, the speech and news conference…
How Durable is the Current Economic Expansion?
The slumping stock market since mid-January, has prompted concerns that the expansion might be due to expire. In this edition of Graphic Intelligence, we look at the longest consistent indicators of economic activity – the amplitude and scope of real GDP growth, and changes in employment – and how that record allows some tentative judgments […] Robson, Kronick, Hui – The Durability of the Current Expansion
From: William B.P. Robson, Jeremy M. Kronick, and Nikki Hui To: Worried Canadian Stock Market Watchers Date: February 12, 2018 Re: The durability of the current expansion A slumping stock market – the S&P/TSX index was down 10 percent from its January high mid-Friday – has prompted concerns about the broader economy. People associate ups […] Business Cycle Council Methodology
Business Cycle Council Methodology The C.D. Howe Business Cycle Council defines a downturn as a recession if there is, broadly speaking, a pronounced, persistent, and pervasive decline in aggregate economic activity. In other words, to identify a recession three dimensions need to be considered simultaneously: amplitude, duration, and scope – or how widespread a downturn […]Business Cycle Council Communique – December 2017
The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council met on Wednesday December 13 to review its assessments of Canadian business cycle dates.
The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, chaired by Steve Ambler, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council meets on an annual basis, or as warranted when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession. The Council also acts as a conduit for research aimed at developing a deeper understanding of how the economy evolves and to provide guidance to policymakers.
The Council defines a recession as a pronounced, persistent, and pervasive decline in aggregate economic activity. In deciding on the occurrence and timing…
Revisions to Economic Statistics and Their Impact on Policymaking
Policymakers need not be the passive victims of revisions to the economic data they are scrutinizing, according to a report by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Revisions to Economic Statistics and Their Impact on Policymaking,” Philip Cross, former Chief Economic Analyst at Statistics Canada, says policymakers can proactively take measures to anticipate revisions. Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.25 Percent by July 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
July 6, 2017 — In a tight vote, the C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on July 12, 2017. The MPC called for the Bank to hike to 0.75 percent at the following announcement in September, with further hikes to 1.00 by January 2018 and 1.25 by July 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of…
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by May 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
May 18, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) said the Bank of Canada should keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on May 24, 2017. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should hold the target at 0.50 percent over the next six months, and hike to 1.00 percent by May of 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest-rate…
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by April 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
April 6, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on April 12, 2017. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should raise the target to 0.75 percent over the next six months, and to 1.00 percent by April of 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming…
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through September; Hike to 0.75 Percent by Early 2018, Says C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
February 23, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on March 1, 2017. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should hold the target at 0.50 percent over the next six months, and raise it to 0.75 percent by March of 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s…
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through mid-Year; Hike to 0.75 Percent by 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
January 12, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on January 18, 2017. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should hold the target at 0.50 percent over the next six months, and raise it to 0.75 percent by January of 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s…