Don Drummond – It’s 2035. Do You Know Where Your Deficit Is?
From: Don Drummond To: Canadian debt watchers Date: August 11, 2021 Re: It’s 2035. Do you know where your deficit is? As the Liberal government in Ottawa starts ramping up for the big October 19 celebration of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s 20 years in power, fiscal storm clouds loom. A gradual but modest rise in interest rates, the continuation […] Rolling the Dice on Canada’s Fiscal Future
Ottawa’s Gamble on Canada’s Fiscal Future The federal debt-to-GDP ratio could easily rise above current peak levels associated with the pandemic. Only small changes in assumptions of economic growth and interest rates can significantly alter the course of the projected debt burden. Authors Alexandre Laurin and Don Drummond explore the sensitivity and fragility of Canada’s […] Robson, Laurin – Is Ottawa About To Cut Its Burgeoning Payroll?
To: Members of Parliament From: William B.P. Robson and Alexandre Laurin Date: July 21, 2021 Re: Is Ottawa about to Cut its Burgeoning Payroll? Surging transfer payments financed by unprecedented borrowing have dominated the fiscal headlines since the spring of 2020. By contrast, the sharp run-up in Ottawa’s operating costs since 2014 has hardly registered. As the pandemic recedes […] Dachis, Laurin, Mackinnon, Manley, Robson – Federal Budgets Should Support Growth And Mitigate Debt Risks
To: Members of Parliament From: Benjamin Dachis, Alexandre Laurin, Janice MacKinnon, John Manley, and William B.P. Robson Date: July 19, 2021 Re: Federal Budgets Should Support Growth and Mitigate Debt Risks The 2021 federal budget featured overly optimistic projections for growth and federal debt, and too many measures supporting current consumption rather than investment and […] Ottawa’s unheralded austerity plan: Cuts to the federal government’s payroll – Financial Post Op-ed
Surging transfer payments financed by unprecedented borrowing have dominated the fiscal headlines since the spring of 2020. By contrast, the sharp run-up in Ottawa’s operating costs since 2014 has hardly registered. As the pandemic recedes and its fiscal aftermath comes to dominate policy discussions, Ottawa’s burgeoning overhead — mainly due to compensation — will come under close scrutiny. As in the proverb, after seven fat years, seven lean years loom.
If not for the distraction of the pandemic, which allowed the government to get away with not presenting a budget in 2020, Ottawa’s surging operating and employment costs would have attracted attention by now. In the 2014/15 fiscal year, federal expenses other than transfer…
Dachis, Dahlby, Mintz – Lower, Don’t Raise, The Toronto Ltt
To: Toronto City Council From: Benjamin Dachis, Bev Dahlby, and Jack Mintz Date: July 13, 2021 Re: Lower, Don’t Raise, the Toronto LTT Toronto City Council is preparing to discuss an increase in the land transfer tax (LTT) on high-end homes. Our analysis of the impacts of such a move is intended to help inform […] S3 E14: Too Much Stimulus with Bill Robson and Jeremy Kronick
With most of Canada partially vaccinated and 41% going into a “two dose summer,” is now the time to pull back on COVID-19 related stimulus spending? The Institute’s Bill Robson and Jeremy Kronick tell Michael Hainsworth that the economic data support the move as consumers prepare to open their wallets wide. The Economic Cost of Toronto’s Land Transfer Tax
Toronto Should Cut, Not Hike, Land Transfer Tax Toronto City Council should reduce rather than increase the land transfer tax (LTT) on high-end homes. Authors Benjamin Dachis, Bev Dahlby and Jack Mintz find any move to increase the tax would have a high economic cost because the LTT discourages people from moving to more favourable locations or housing when […] Benjamin Dachis on BNN – The Disadvantages of Toronto’s Land Transfer Tax
Toronto’s municipal government is set to discuss hiking land transfer taxes. Benjamin Dachis, economist and Director of Public Affairs at the C.D. Howe Institute, talks about why it may not be an effective tool for revenue generation. He also offers some views on these taxes in the context of one of Canada’s hottest markets.
Louis Lévesque – Provincial Debt Levels (ii): Unsustainable Debt Dynamics
From: Louis Lévesque To: Canadians concerned about debt Date: June 29, 2021 Re: Provincial Debt Levels (II): Unsustainable Debt Dynamics Growth in healthcare spending consistently higher than growth in total revenues is the main factor since 2007 behind the sustained rise in provincial debt to record levels by 2019, as outlined yesterday. Canadian Institute of Health Information and fiscal […] Louis Lévesque – Provincial Debt Levels (i): Historic Heights Pre-pandemic
From: Louis Lévesque To: Canadians concerned about debt Date: June 28, 2021 Re: Provincial Debt Levels (I): Historic Heights Pre-pandemic The success story of the Canadian federal fiscal consolidation in the 1990s is well known. Less known is the fact that provincial debt levels followed a largely similar pattern, albeit at lower levels, until 2008. What is even less […] William B.P. Robson – Brakes, Please, for Your Tag-team Stimulus
To: The Federal Government and Bank of Canada From: William B.P. Robson Date: June 24, 2021 Re: Brakes, Please, for Your Tag-team Stimulus Governments in the advanced economies mounted a massive fiscal response to the COVID crisis. They ramped up spending, mainly on income supports to individuals and businesses, and financed it by borrowing. Central banks also responded on […]