The case for a rate cut was clear, but the future remains cloudy

Published in The Globe and Mail. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent. The cut was widely anticipated by financial markets. The cracks in the Canadian economy we mentioned in these pages after the bank’s last announcement in July have become far more visible. Gross domestic […]

The Three Big Challenges Facing Parliament Next Week

From: Colin BusbyTo: Parliament watchersDate: September 12, 2025Re: The Three Big Challenges Facing Parliament Next Week Three big policy issues will be the focal point when Parliament resumes next week. The government faces a challenging balancing act as it works against the backdrop of a weakening economy – the unemployment rate is at 7.1 percent […]

Weak Within and Shaken by Tariffs, Canada Needs a New Economic and Fiscal Model

Published in The Globe and Mail. A trading nation, Canada lives next to what has long been a big welcoming market in a generally competitive free-trading world. That once free American market is fast being restricted by tariffs, for now made passably permeable by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is likely to be made more U.S.-protectionist […]

Shaken by Tariffs, Still Weak from Within: Canada Needs a New Economic and Fiscal Model

Edited remarks delivered to the School of Policy Studies, Queen’s University, on September 5, 2025.   Introduction: Canada Faces Layers of Economic and Fiscal Challenges There is keen awareness that Canada faces a serious economic challenge – if not a crisis – emanating from the US tariff threat. A desperate attempt is being made to […]

Tariffs Are Exposing Canada’s Deeper Economic Weaknesses

September 4, 2025 – The US tariff threat has exposed the fragility of Canada’s economic model, built on deep reliance on its southern neighbour. But tariffs are only the latest shock. Woeful productivity growth, high public debt, and a tax system that discourages growth have been weighing on the Canadian economy for years, according to […]

Canada’s Aluminum Production and US Tariffs

From: Brian LivingstonTo: Canadian Trade NegotiatorsDate: September 2, 2025Re: Aluminum Tariffs Canada supplies over half of the aluminum available in the United States (see chart).  These sales of 2.8 million tonnes/year of raw aluminum from Canada to the US take place under agreements made between many companies.  However, disrupting those business plans, the United States […]

Global Military Spending Rises While the US Takes a Relative Step Back

Since Russia’s invasion of Crimea, world military expenditures have risen by 39% in real terms, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a sharp acceleration from a 24% increase in the 10 years prior. The chart illustrates that the contribution of the United States to this increase is smaller than its share of world […]

Let’s Move Past the CUSMA Renewal Fantasy

From: Lawrence HermanTo: Trade observersDate: August 20, 2025Re: Let’s Move Past the CUSMA Renewal Fantasy As the Carney government tries to sort out Canada’s relationship with the Trump administration, almost nothing has been disclosed about the scope, content, timing or ultimate objectives of these talks, even though the outcome –success or failure – will be hugely significant […]

Canada Needs a Framework for CUSMA Renewal Before It’s Too Late

August 12, 2025 – While trade diversification is imperative, Canada must move quickly to secure a trade and security framework with the United States and Mexico ahead of the formal Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA) review, according to a new CommuniquĂ© from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Trade Crisis Working Group. The group of trade and industry […]

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