Published in The Globe and Mail. Any lingering hope about the survival of any kind of North American free-trade area – let alone the USMCA itself – was put to rest this week with Donald Trump saying he is “not looking to renew” the agreement and that he has the right to terminate it, then repeating the […]
What leverage does Canada have heading into upcoming CUSMA negotiations and what is at stake? In this episode, Professor Meredith Lilly, former International Trade Advisor to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, joins Steve Verheul, Canada’s chief negotiator for NAFTA, to discuss Canada’s negotiating leverage, the pressures shaping North American trade, and what the next round of […]
What leverage does Canada have heading into upcoming CUSMA negotiations and what is at stake? In this episode, Professor Meredith Lilly, former International Trade Advisor to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, joins Steve Verheul, Canada’s chief negotiator for NAFTA, to discuss Canada’s negotiating leverage, the pressures shaping North American trade, and what the next round of […]
From: Lawrence Herman To: Trade observers Date: June 18, 2026 Re: Any CUSMA Extension Should Close that National Security Loophole The future of North America’s free trade deal is uncertain after Donald Trump’s musings last week about not renewing the agreement, indicating that he might terminate the deal because the United States needs nothing from Canada (or Mexico) anyway. Still, it remains likely that Canada and the United States will get down to some form of negotiation in the weeks to come. Assuming these take place, one issue at the top of Canada’s agenda should be to change the so-called “national security […]
From: Lawrence Herman To: Trade observers Date: June 8, 2026 Re: Standing up to China in the Taiwan Strait Two weeks ago, HMCS Charlottetown transited the Tawain Strait, one of numerous such forays by the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia over the last number of months, and Canada’s thirteenth in the past eight years. These […]
Recent employment data for tariff-exposed industries like motor vehicle and parts manufacturing demonstrates the importance of CUSMA to Canadian businesses. Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing experienced a significant decline in employment since January 2025, with employment declining nearly 6 percent from January 2025 to March 2026. While it may not be realistic for Canada-US trade […]
From: Daniel Schwanen To: CUSMA review watchers Date: May 25, 2026 Re: Here’s a Canadian Plan to get Deal out of the CUSMA Review Ordeal Reports that Washington wants a “down payment” from Canada just to begin talks on extending the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) provoked a wide Canadian consensus that we should refuse to pay for the “privilege” of sitting at the […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. A report that Washington wanted a “down payment” from Canada just to begin talks on extending the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) provoked a wide Canadian consensus that we should refuse to pay for the “privilege” of sitting at the table. That instinct is right. But refusal is not a […]
From: Lawrence Herman To: Trade observers Date: May 8, 2026 Re: A Trade Remedy Future Awaits Farmers When Supply Management Dies Asked about how he went bankrupt, a character in Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Sun Also Rises replies, “gradually, then suddenly.” That’s what’s in store for Canada’s supply management system, an outdated, regressive policy from the 1970s that protects the dairy and poultry sectors by artificially raising […]
From: Colin Busby and Nick Dahir To: Canadian fiscal observers Date: May 5, 2026 Re: The Tough Choices That Loom Over Our New 5-Percent Defence Target Having finally reached the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 2-percent target of GDP defence spending – set in 2014 – Canada now faces a far steeper, and more critical climb. Raising that share to […]
From: Brian Livingston To: Chinese EV observers Date: April 30, 2026 Re: Administering that 6.1% Tariff for Chinese Electric Vehicle Imports The federal government’s decision to permit the importing of 49,000 electric vehicles (EVs) from China with a reduced tariff of 6.1 percent has raised questions as to how it will be administered. The MOU signed with China reduces the tariff to Canada’s current most favoured nation rate of 6.1 percent on the first 49,000 EVs imported. Any in excess of 49,000 will also be subject to the existing surtax of 100%, which was imposed by Canada in October […]
From: Glen Hodgson To: Trade watchers Date: April 20, 2026 Re: Can Canada accelerate its global trade diversification? The Trump tariffs and other threats have re-energized the federal government’s desire to diversify Canadian trade and investment. The 2025 federal budget committed to double exports of goods and services to non-US markets over the next decade, to a target of $600 billion in 2035 (in […]
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Published in The Globe and Mail. Any lingering hope about the survival of any kind of North American free-trade area – let alone the USMCA itself – was put to rest this week with Donald Trump saying he is “not looking to renew” the agreement and that he has the right to terminate it, then repeating the […] 
What leverage does Canada have heading into upcoming CUSMA negotiations and what is at stake? In this episode, Professor Meredith Lilly, former International Trade Advisor to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, joins Steve Verheul, Canada’s chief negotiator for NAFTA, to discuss Canada’s negotiating leverage, the pressures shaping North American trade, and what the next round of […] 
From: Lawrence Herman To: Trade observers Date: June 18, 2026 Re: Any CUSMA Extension Should Close that National Security Loophole The future of North America’s free trade deal is uncertain after Donald Trump’s musings last week about not renewing the agreement, indicating that he might terminate the deal because the United States needs nothing from Canada (or Mexico) anyway. Still, it remains likely that Canada and the United States will get down to some form of negotiation in the weeks to come. Assuming these take place, one issue at the top of Canada’s agenda should be to change the so-called “national security […] 
From: Lawrence Herman To: Trade observers Date: June 8, 2026 Re: Standing up to China in the Taiwan Strait Two weeks ago, HMCS Charlottetown transited the Tawain Strait, one of numerous such forays by the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia over the last number of months, and Canada’s thirteenth in the past eight years. These […] 
Recent employment data for tariff-exposed industries like motor vehicle and parts manufacturing demonstrates the importance of CUSMA to Canadian businesses. Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing experienced a significant decline in employment since January 2025, with employment declining nearly 6 percent from January 2025 to March 2026. While it may not be realistic for Canada-US trade […] 
From: Daniel Schwanen To: CUSMA review watchers Date: May 25, 2026 Re: Here’s a Canadian Plan to get Deal out of the CUSMA Review Ordeal Reports that Washington wants a “down payment” from Canada just to begin talks on extending the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) provoked a wide Canadian consensus that we should refuse to pay for the “privilege” of sitting at the […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail. A report that Washington wanted a “down payment” from Canada just to begin talks on extending the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) provoked a wide Canadian consensus that we should refuse to pay for the “privilege” of sitting at the table. That instinct is right. But refusal is not a […] 
From: Lawrence Herman To: Trade observers Date: May 8, 2026 Re: A Trade Remedy Future Awaits Farmers When Supply Management Dies Asked about how he went bankrupt, a character in Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Sun Also Rises replies, “gradually, then suddenly.” That’s what’s in store for Canada’s supply management system, an outdated, regressive policy from the 1970s that protects the dairy and poultry sectors by artificially raising […] 
From: Colin Busby and Nick Dahir To: Canadian fiscal observers Date: May 5, 2026 Re: The Tough Choices That Loom Over Our New 5-Percent Defence Target Having finally reached the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 2-percent target of GDP defence spending – set in 2014 – Canada now faces a far steeper, and more critical climb. Raising that share to […] 
From: Brian Livingston To: Chinese EV observers Date: April 30, 2026 Re: Administering that 6.1% Tariff for Chinese Electric Vehicle Imports The federal government’s decision to permit the importing of 49,000 electric vehicles (EVs) from China with a reduced tariff of 6.1 percent has raised questions as to how it will be administered. The MOU signed with China reduces the tariff to Canada’s current most favoured nation rate of 6.1 percent on the first 49,000 EVs imported. Any in excess of 49,000 will also be subject to the existing surtax of 100%, which was imposed by Canada in October […] 
From: Glen Hodgson To: Trade watchers Date: April 20, 2026 Re: Can Canada accelerate its global trade diversification? The Trump tariffs and other threats have re-energized the federal government’s desire to diversify Canadian trade and investment. The 2025 federal budget committed to double exports of goods and services to non-US markets over the next decade, to a target of $600 billion in 2035 (in […]