William B.P. Robson – Higher Productivity Would Help Fight Inflation
From: William B.P. Robson To: Federal Economic Ministers Date: July 6, 2022 Re: Higher Productivity Would Help Fight Inflation Canadians are beset by economic problems. Inflation is hammering their purchasing power. Forecasters are predicting weak, if any, rise in living standards. And now it seems that tighter monetary policy may cause a recession. The list of challenges seems […] Bank of Canada Beware: Surging Inflation Linked to Money Supply Growth
With inflation on the rise, the Bank of Canada should re-examine the link between growth in the money supply and future inflation, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Money Talks: The Old, New Tool for Predicting Inflation,” authors Steve…Ambler, Kronick – Reintegrate Money into Monetary Policy Analysis
From: Steve Ambler and Jeremy M. Kronick To: Bank of Canada Governing Council Date: July 5, 2022 Re: Reintegrate Money into Monetary Policy Analysis Headline inflation, which has reached 7.7 percent, has become decidedly unsettled. Until the 1980s, most economists believed there was a significant relationship between money and inflation in both the short and long runs. However, […] Money Talks: The Old, New Tool for Predicting Inflation
With rising inflation top-of-mind for Canadians, a major question is: Can we predict its future? This Commentary shows that growth in the money supply is a useful predictor of inflation, and examines why and when. Since the early 1990s, the Bank of Canada has pursued a successful inflation-targeting strategy. With inflation, and inflation expectations, safely anchored […] Jeremy Kronick on BNN – BoC’s policy rate must go much farther to get inflation back down
Jeremy Kronick, Associate Director of Research at the C.D. Howe Institute, joined BNN Bloomberg to explain how stimulus spending during the pandemic has created an overhang in the economy and prices have to play catch-up with the money now sloshing around in the system. Kronick says the slowdown in the rates of money growth and in the housing market are positive signs for taming inflation.
Holland, Mansur, Yates – Should Electric Vehicles Charge During the Day?
From: Stephen Holland, Erin Mansur and Andrew Yates To: Canada’s Energy Transition Leaders Date: June 30, 2022 Re: Should Electric Vehicles Charge During the Day? Effectively responding to climate change will likely require significant modification of the electricity grid through decarbonization and electrification. Decarbonization of electricity generation requires shifting from fossil fuels to emission-free technologies such as wind, […] Jon Johnson – Latest Congressional Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Initiative – For Real or for Show?
From: Jon Johnson To: Federal Departments of Global Affairs, Environment, and Natural Resources Date: June 29, 2022 Re: Latest Congressional Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Initiative – For Real or for Show? The FAIR Transition and Competition Act introduced last July, which provided for a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), was never enacted. Four Democratic senators have […] William B.P. Robson – A Recession Lurks in our New Inflation Numbers
From: William B.P. Robson To: Canadians Concerned about the Economy Date: June 28, 2022 Re: A Recession Lurks in our New Inflation Numbers The May consumer price index was up 7.7 percent year-over-year in Statistics Canada’s inflation report last week. That’s alarming for two reasons. The obvious one: our money’s purchasing power is falling faster than at any time […]Lawrence Herman – How Canada Can Navigate the New World of Sanctions
From: Lawrence Herman To: Canadians Concerned about Trade Date: June 27, 2022 Re: How Canada Can Navigate the New World of Sanctions It is becoming increasingly challenging for Canadian businesses to navigate the complex web of economic sanctions imposed on Russian oligarchs and state entities because of the Ukraine invasion. This note examines how the Canadian government could do […]Ça ne devait pas se passer comme ça – La Presse Op-Ed
Ça, étant une inflation persistante et généralisée, que les banques centrales doivent écraser par une hausse accélérée des taux d’intérêt, au risque élevé de récession ! Ça, expliquant l’humeur massacrante en Bourse.
« We fought the last war. » On s’est battu comme si on livrait la guerre précédente, explique Jason Furman, professeur à Harvard et ex-conseiller économique du président Obama. Erreur classique des généraux obnubilés par le dernier conflit, en l’occurrence celui de la grande crise financière de 2007-2008.
La grande récession qu’elle a engendrée fut des plus longues, car il a fallu désendetter le secteur privé et recapitaliser le système bancaire. On a aussi blâmé les gouvernements pour la…
Double whammy: The latest surge in inflation means a recession is likely – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Wednesday’s inflation report from Statistics Canada showed that the consumer price index was up 7.7 per cent year-over-year in May. That’s alarming for two reasons. The obvious one: our money’s purchasing power is falling faster than at any time since the early 1980s. The other reason will take time to sink in: We are headed for a recession.
Getting inflation back to its 2-per-cent target would inevitably have been a challenge for the Bank of Canada. The fiscal and monetary stimulus at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic went on too long, and now it has combined with pent-up saving by households who could not travel, eat out or enjoy in-person entertainment for two years to unleash a torrent of spending. Demand is above the…
O’Donnell, Skuterud – Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Data Shortage
From: Ian O’Donnell and Mikal Skuterud To: Canadians Concerned about the Labour Market Date: June 23, 2022 Re: Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Data Shortage Despite repeated policy efforts to curtail employer reliance on temporary foreign workers (TFWs), we estimate that their share of Canadian employment increased more than six-fold since 2000, reaching more than 5 percent by 2019. […]