Daniel Schwanen – How About a NAFTA Side Deal? (Part Two)
From: Daniel Schwanen To: The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Global Affairs Date: January 19, 2018 Re: How About a NAFTA Side Deal? (Part Two) As mentioned in my last memo, in next week’s round of NAFTA renegotiations in Montreal, Canada should contemplate reaching out to the US side on substantive points that have proved intractable in principle so […]Daniel Schwanen – How About a NAFTA Side Deal? (Part One)
From: Daniel Schwanen To: The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Global Affairs Date: January 19, 2018 Re: How About a NAFTA Side Deal? (Part One) There has been speculation that Donald Trump, for domestic political calculations, or simply to put pressure on Canada and Mexico, may soon formally announce his intention to withdraw the US from NAFTA. His State […]Benjamin Dachis – Keep Clean Fuel Standard in Low Gear
To: The Hon. Catherine McKenna, Minister of Environment and Climate Change From: Benjamin Dachis Date: January 18, 2018 Re: Keep Clean Fuel Standard in Low Gear In 2016, you announced plans to introduce a Clean Fuel Standard (CFS). Before going full-speed with regulations, it is worth pausing to remember that a CFS should, at most, […] Where does the Bank of Canada go after the latest rate hike? – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
The wait for the Bank of Canada to move is over; now the waiting for the next steps begins.
Wednesday’s rate increase by the bank did not come as a surprise. In its December interest-rate setting announcement, the bank noted that it would be guided by incoming data before raising its target for the overnight rate. Well, the data have spoken. Headline inflation nudged above the bank’s 2-per-cent target in November, coming in at 2.1 per cent, and two of the bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, CPI-trim and CPI-median (which remove volatile components from the index), moved up closer to 2 per cent.
The bank also noted the robust pace of business investment, and the positive outlook for future investment as factors…
Kronick And Omran – China And Australia, Lessons For Canada’s Financial Sector
From: Jeremy Kronick and Farah Omran To: François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of International Trade Date: January 17, 2018 Re: China and Australia, Lessons for Canada’s Financial Sector China presents an enormous opportunity to the global economy, including Canada’s. A recent C.D. Howe intelligence memo highlighted the importance of the China-Canada relationship – along with some of […] Risk and Readiness: The Impact of Automation on Provincial Labour Markets
Some provinces, with more economic diversification or a concentration of workers in areas that are not very susceptible to automation, appear to be better situated for technological change than others, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Risk and Readiness: The Impact of Automation on Provincial Labour Markets,” author Rosalie Wyonch […] Rise Of The Robots – Which Provinces Are Ready?
Some provinces, with more economic diversification or a concentration of workers in areas that are not very susceptible to automation, appear to be better situated for technological change than others, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Risk and…Laurin, Milligan – Tax Options for Childcare that Encourage Work, Flexibility, Choice, Fairness and Quality
From: Alexandre Laurin and Kevin Milligan To: Bill Morneau and Provincial Ministers of Finance Date: January 16, 2018 Re: Tax Options for Childcare that Encourage Work, Flexibility, Choice, Fairness and Quality The current tax deduction for childcare expenses helps to alleviate the cost for some, but many families, particularly at the lower end of the income scale, end […] Bank of Canada Should Raise Overnight Rate to 1.25 Percent This Week, and 1.75 Percent by January 2019
To: Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada From: The C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Date: January 15, 2018 Re: Bank of Canada Should Raise Overnight Rate to 1.25 Percent This Week, and 1.75 Percent by January 2019 At our meeting last week we called for the Bank of Canada to raise its target for […]The post-NAFTA world is starting to take shape: Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Are we entering the post-NAFTA world? It certainly looks that way.
The markets finally woke up to this on Wednesday, after sleepwalking for the past year, as bond yields and stock prices sank and the dollar took a hit on news that the Trump administration is preparing to pull the plug on the North American free-trade agreement, maybe even before the next round of negotiations slated for Montreal at the end of the month.
Markets have a way of ignoring facts, or at least taking a rosy view in complex situations of government-to-government trade policy. In this case, the somnambulism was based on misplaced optimism that trade negotiators would be able to solve the NAFTA problems, blithely ignoring the significance of…
Alexandre Laurin – Canada’s Two-parent Tax Trap And How To Fix It
From: Alexandre Laurin To: Ministers of Finance Date: January 11, 2018 Re: Canada’s Two-Parent Tax Trap and How to Fix It Working parents with children — particularly low-income families — face prohibitive tax rates that discourage taking on extra employment to get ahead. In my new report I show how mothers and poorer families are the most adversely affected […] Gulati, McAusland, Sallee – Heat My Seats: How Canadians Spend Their Hybrid Vehicle Rebates
From: Sumeet Gulati, Carol McAusland and James Sallee To: Provincial Ministers of Transportation Date: January 10, 2018 Re: Heat My Seats: How Canadians Spend Their Hybrid Vehicle Rebates Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, have offered rebates and subsidies for hybrid cars for more than a decade. We reviewed more than 120,000 transactions, representing about 20 […]