Too Soon to Call a Downturn
Report of the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council
July 28, 2015 – Data do not at this time allow declaring whether Canada has entered an economic downturn. This is the consensus view of the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council, which held its second meeting on July 22, 2015.
The Business Cycle Council is the arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The council is comprised of eminent economists active in the field, and acts as a conduit for research aimed at developing a deeper understanding of how the economy evolves and to provide guidance to policymakers. Members of the Business Cycle Council participate in their personal capacities, and the views collectively expressed do not represent…
TPP pressure on Canada, but US is super-star in agriculture subsidies: Financial Post Op-Ed
Published in the Financial Post on July 27, 2015
Lawrence L. Herman, founding partner at Herman & Associates, practices international trade law and is a Senior Fellow of the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto.
Americans provide billions in protectionism to dairy that will have to be given up for trade deal.
We rail against Canada’s supply management system. Rightly so. It’s a Soviet-style regime that is out of step with Canada’s international trade interests and objectives.
Every credible Canadian think-tank has said that supply management is a regressive system that distorts the market by guaranteeing dairy, poultry and egg producers a positive return on production, inhibiting competitiveness and, in the…
Canada can manage dairy supply without breaking its TPP promises: Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Published in the Globe and Mail on July 27, 2015
Daniel Schwanen is vice president of research at the C.D. Howe Institute.
On Tuesday, the trade ministers of 12 countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement will meet in Maui, the first such encounter since the U.S. Congress granted Trade Promotion Authority to President Barack Obama last month.
With this “fast track” authority in its pocket, Mr. Obama’s administration can credibly commit to concluding trade agreements with other countries. It is now quite possible that the negotiations, which Canada joined in 2012, could be completed this year.
The TPP encompasses economies accounting for about 40 per cent of global income. It would…
Deep-6 the High-5 Ontario electricity program: Financial Post Op-Ed
Published in the Financial Post on July 24, 2015
Benjamin Dachis is a Senior Policy Analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute. Anindya Sen is the author of the C.D. Howe Institute study Peak Power Problems: How Ontario’s Industrial Electricity Pricing System Impacts Consumers.
The cost to an industrial business of consuming electricity during a single High-5 hour is $52,000 per MWh
A clumsy Ontario government program threatens Ontario’s industrial businesses with inordinately high electricity costs this month. The result is that businesses either shut down production or go off-the-grid to save money. But there is a better way.
July is historically the hottest month of the year in Ontario, giving July…
How To Clean Up The Problems With Ontario’s Recycling System
The government of Ontario should make individual producers responsible for recycled products while permitting them to achieve recycling goals as they see fit, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. In “An Opportunity not to be Wasted: Reforming Ontario’s Recycling…An Opportunity not to be Wasted: Reforming Ontario’s Recycling Program
The government of Ontario should make individual producers responsible for recycled products while permitting them to achieve recycling goals as they see fit, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. In “An Opportunity not to be Wasted: Reforming Ontario’s Recycling Program,” author Aaron Jacobs urges Ontario to follow the lead of other provinces, notably Manitoba, […] Cities want more money, and new tools to raise it: Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Published in the Globe and Mail on July 20, 2015
Benjamin Dachis is a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute.
Across Canada, 2015 is shaping up as a key year for cities looking for new ways to raise money, through taxing powers or other revenue tools. But what powers should cities have? What principles should guide decisions? One practical principle is that the people who use a municipal service should be the people who pay for it.
Vancouver-area cities tried, and failed, to seek the power to levy an extra sales tax to finance public transit. Now they must look to new ideas to deal with economy-stifling congestion. The Alberta government plans to introducemajor changes to municipal taxation…
Why Canada needs a better mortgage backstop: Financial Post Op-Ed
Published in the Financial Post on July 16, 2015
By Thorsten V. Koeppl and James MacGee
Thorsten V. Koeppl is Associate Professor and RBC Fellow, Department of Economics, Queen’s University; and Scholar in Financial Services and Monetary Policy, C.D. Howe Institute. James MacGee is Associate Professor of Economics, Western University, and a Research Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute.
Global insecurity jeopardizes Canada’s housing market if we don’t protect against a major recession
Headlines about new record highs for housing prices in Toronto are a reminder that Canadian prices remain well above historical trends. Naturally, numerous economic commentators follow such news with warnings of the…
Intelligence Minute – Alexandre Laurin on the need to limit the growth of provincial transfers
In the second installment of the Intelligence Minute, the Institute’s Director of Research, Alexandre Laurin, discusses his co-authored report, “Adaptability, Accountability and Sustainability: Intergovernmental Fiscal Arrangements in Canada,” and why provincial governments need to be accountable for their own spending increases.
Why Bank Of Canada’s Rate Cut May Have Less Impact Than Poloz Hopes: Globe And Mail Op-ed
Published in the Globe and Mail on July 15, 2015
Steve Ambler is David Dodge Chair in monetary policy at the C.D. Howe Institute and professor at the University of Quebec at Montreal.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to cut its overnight rate target to 0.5 per cent was expected by many in the wake of the disappointing economic news that’s come since the previous announcement in May. Instead of “a return to solid growth in the second quarter,” as the bank predicted then, gross domestic product growth for the entire second quarter may have been negative.
he bank weighs many factors before making a decision on the overnight rate target. The two main ones are the rate of inflation itself and excess capacity…
Adaptability, Accountability and Sustainability: Intergovernmental Fiscal Arrangements in Canada
Spending control and greater reliance on their own revenues are more promising responses to provincial budget pressures than higher federal transfers, according to a new report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Adaptability, Accountability and Sustainability: Intergovernmental Fiscal Arrangements in Canada,” authors William Robson and Alexandre Laurin foresee demographic stresses on provincial government […]