Canada Needs Clear, Predictable Immigration Targets, Says C.D. Howe Institute Immigration Targets Council

September 3, 2026 – Canada needs a more transparent and predictable immigration system, according to the C.D. Howe Institute Immigration Targets Council. Bringing together leading academics and policy experts, the Council recommends clear permanent immigration targets and a strict ceiling on the non-permanent resident population.

The Council recommends annual permanent-resident admissions of 380,000 in 2027, 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029, reflecting the median of members’ recommendations. It also strongly recommends that all permanent-resident admissions, regardless of program or pathway, be included in the government’s published immigration target rather than introduced through additional streams outside the announced total.

For temporary immigration, the Council recommends reducing the non-permanent resident share of Canada’s population to 5 percent by next year, treating that level as a strict ceiling rather than a target, and moving toward 3 percent over the medium to longer term. Members also supported substantially reducing low-skilled, non-agricultural temporary foreign worker entries over time, while recognizing the distinct labour-market role of seasonal agricultural workers.

On international students, members emphasized stronger academic and language requirements, higher standards for institutions and programs, and limits on off-campus work. The Council also calls for stronger permit-renewal requirements, better use of entry-exit data, and reforms to improve the efficiency and integrity of the asylum system.

The group also recommends simplifying the pathway from temporary to permanent residence. Selection for economic permanent residence should be transparent, evidence-based, and predictable, using a strengthened Comprehensive Ranking System rather than discretionary or highly targeted selection. Prospective temporary residents should also have a clearer understanding of their likelihood of qualifying for permanent residence.

The Council says these reforms would bring greater transparency, predictability, and control to Canada’s immigration system – steps it views as important to maintaining public confidence in immigration policy.

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For more information, contact: Raquel Schneider, Communications Officer, C.D. Howe Institute, 647-805-3918, rschneider@cdhowe.org.  

The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada’s most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review. 

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