Ted Carmichael – How to Tame Inflation Without Breaking the Economy
From: Ted Carmichael To: Canadian inflation watchers Date: June 21, 2023 Re: How to Tame Inflation Without Breaking the Economy The trigger for the sharp rise in Canadian inflation in spring 2021 is still debated. And it’s a debate that matters: The relative importance of the pandemic supply chain disruption, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “greed,” or central bank financing of a […] Consumers bring forward spending if they expect continued inflation: C.D. Howe’s Jeremy Kronick
Jeremy Kronick, director of monetary and financial services research at the C.D. Howe Institute, tells BNN Bloomberg that elevated inflation expectations could be a reason for the jump in household spending in today’s Q1 GDP data. He says lower business spending makes him less optimistic about improvement in productivity. On the BoC’s rate meeting next month, he says the central bank may choose to see if future data continues to support tightening before hiking rates again.
Lawrence Herman – Private-Sector Global Standards Still Need Some Government Help
From: Lawrence Herman To: Canadians Concerned About Trade Date: January 3, 2023 Re: Private-Sector Global Standards Still Need Some Government Help Non-state actors are increasingly engaged in authoritative decision-making over standards. As a result, frameworks for governing international economic transactions are increasingly being maintained by the private sector, both with and without government cooperation. That rings as true today […] Higher interest rates will cause a recession – how do we pick up the pieces? – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
While many have challenged the pace of the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate hikes, their likelihood of success and the extent to which further increases are merited, it has already become clear that, regardless, a recession is imminent. And while it remains to be seen how deep and how long that recession will be, there is no question it will hurt some more than others.
Will governments be there to pick up the pieces and manage the consequences of higher interest rates? If so, how, and in what ways can they help, given their rather precarious fiscal position, with Ottawa carrying $1.1-trillion in debt?
Among the many things that concern us are the distributional impacts of the looming downturn – some groups are…
Reshoring is a poor long-term strategy for sustainable growth – The Hub Op-Ed
On November 22, 2022, as part of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce’s Ontario Economic Summit, The Hub’s executive director Rudyard Griffiths moderated a “Munk-style” debate involving Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coyne, C.D. Howe Institute CEO Bill Robson, former Ontario Cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello, and The Hub’s own editor-at-large Sean Speer. The debate’s resolution read: Be It Resolved: Ontario Needs Reshoring as Part of Its Growth Agenda. Pupatello and Speer argued in favour of the motion. Coyne and Robson against it.
Thanks to the organizers for inviting us here to debate this very important question. Our worthy opponents, Sandra and Sean, make a very valiant case in favour of reshoring as part of Ontario’s growth…
S4 E16: SME Challenges with Michael Denham
Canada’s small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) face numerous challenges to scaling-up to compete on the world stage. There are ways to remove those barriers to financing and deepen capital markets. Michael Denham, National Bank of Canada’s Vice Chair of Commercial and Financial Markets, tells C.D. Howe Institute Podcast Host Michael Hainsworth that there are three key hurdles to overcome.
Weak Capital Investment in Canada Hurts Canadian Workers
The higher a country’s stock of business capital, the better its workers are equipped to produce, earn and compete. Countries with abundant capital relative to their workforces earn higher incomes, and countries that add to their capital stocks faster can anticipate faster growth of living standards. Unfortunately, recent comparisons to other developed counties in the […] Decapitalization: Weak Business Investment Threatens Canadian Prosperity
Recent high inflation shows starkly that the Canadian economy’s ability to produce goods and services is not keeping up with surging nominal spending. One key suspect in the economy’s disappointing ability to produce is a declining stock of business capital per available worker – that is, member of the labour force. Business investment in Canada […] Steve Ambler – Calling a Recession: A US Game with Fluid Rules
From: Steve Ambler To: Canadians Concerned about Recession Date: August 8, 2022 Re: Calling a Recession: A US Game with Fluid Rules The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate of second-quarter GDP on July 28, minus 0.9 percent on an annualized basis (a 0.23 percent drop quarter-over-quarter). The US has now […] Winner-take-all hasn’t hit retail yet – Financial Post Op-Ed
The retail trade data for February, released Friday, show a continuing rebound in in-person shopping relative to the online variety, as people-to-people interactions emerged from restrictions imposed during the pandemic.
Retail e-commerce — which includes when goods purchased online are subsequently picked up in a store — was a lifeline for Canadian businesses in 2020. But in-store shopping has come back with a vengeance. Despite the emergence of high-profile online suppliers, fierce competition remains the order of the day in retail.
Since peaking at 10 per cent of total sales by Canadian retailers in the first days of the pandemic, e-commerce’s share of retail sales has fallen sharply — to just over five…
Sylvain Charlebois – Canada’s Dairy Machinery Strikes Again
To: Canadians Worried About Inflation From: Sylvain Charlebois Date: February 3, 2022 Re: Canada’s Dairy Machinery Strikes Again The Canadian Dairy Commission’s record-breaking price increases for milk and butter took effect this week, granting dairy farmers 8.4 percent more for their milk, and more than 12 percent for butter. It is the highest increase since the commission […] Daniel Schwanen – Tackling Canada’s Commercialization Deficit
To: Ontario Ministers in Charge of Innovation Policy From: Daniel Schwanen Date: January 18, 2022 Re: Tackling Canada’s Commercialization Deficit In a previous memo, I illustrated Canada’s unique position as a world leader generating and exporting research and development, while at the same time being a net importer of intellectual property (IP). The issue has […]