Uncertainty reigns for Bank of Canada as Iran war rages
Published in The Globe and Mail. Friday’s announcement that the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the loss of more than 100,000 full-time jobs – led to some speculation over the weekend that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. Monday’s inflation numbers, with headline inflation falling to 1.8 per cent in February […] Younger Canadians Under Pressure as Debt Stress Hits Record Highs
The Bank of Canada’s most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations reveals a generational divide in financial stress, with prime working-age Canadians (25–54) reporting a record-high 27 percent probability of missing a future debt payment and nearly half of young Canadians (18–24) expecting to miss a payment. Notably, Canadians 55 and older reported just 0.7 percent. […] GDP Per Capita: Better, But Don’t Be Complacent
Statistics Canada recently revised up GDP numbers for the 2022-2024 period. Happily, the revision suggests Canada’s economy was a bit stronger than previously thought. We should not be complacent, however. Before the revision, GDP per capita was about where it had been in 2017. After the revision, it is only slightly better than 2017, which is […] Not So Fast on the GDP Champagne Toasts
From: Peter MacKenzie and Mawakina Bafale To: Economy watchersDate: December 12, 2025Re: Not So Fast on the GDP Champagne Toasts Last month’s third-quarter gross domestic product numbers showed a surprisingly positive 2.6-percent annualized headline number after a weak second quarter had many observers fearing the long-awaited trade war recession had begun. Adding to the supposed positive […] Is it really time to pop the champagne for the Canadian economy?
Published in The Globe and Mail. Third-quarter gross domestic product numbers released last week showed a surprisingly positive 2.6-per-cent annualized headline number after a weak second quarter had many observers fearing the long-awaited trade war recession had begun. Adding to the supposed positive news were recent revisions to previous years’ GDP estimates, which show a rosier story for […] Business Insolvencies Climb to a 10-Year High
Business insolvencies surged to 6,188 in 2024 – the highest level in the past 10 years and a 150 percent increase from the 2021 low. As government support programs ended and interest rates climbed, insolvencies rebounded sharply. While data for 2025 to date suggests some stabilization, insolvencies are on pace to remain well above pre-pandemic norms […] Canadian Economy Contracts, But Does Not Meet Recession Definition
Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a 7.5 percent drop in exports and a 9.4 percent drop in investment in machinery and equipment. The decline was steeper than had been forecast, prompting the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate. The drop […] Canada Is Not in a Recession Despite GDP Decline, Council Finds
September 22, 2025 – Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter of 2025, but conditions do not yet meet the definition of a recession, according to a new Communiqué from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council (BCC). In “Canadian Economy Contracts, But Does Not Meet Recession Definition,” the Council notes that real GDP fell […]Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler – Sooner Rather than Later Needed for More Rate Cuts
To: Inflation Watchers From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler Date: October 28, 2024 Re: Sooner Rather than Later Needed for More Rate Cuts The inflation beast is looking considerably weaker. Between the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement on September 4 and its announcement last Wednesday, Statistics Canada released two of its monthly reports on the consumer price index. They […] Jeremy M. Kronick on BNN Bloomberg – How a 2% interest rate could impact mortgage rates
As Canada stays on track for a 2 percent inflation rate, what could this mean for mortgage rates? Jeremy M. Kronick, Vice-President, Economic Analysis and Strategy at the C.D. Howe Institute, explains.
Jeremy M. Kronick on BNN Bloomberg – Bank of Canada delivers 50 bps rate cut
Jeremy M. Kronick, Vice-President, Economic Analysis and Strategy at the C.D. Howe Institute, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk about The Bank of Canada delivering 50 bps rate cut.
Kronick, Ambler – Predicting (and Confirming) Business Cycles in Canada
To: Recession forecasters From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler Date: May 24, 2024 Re: Predicting (and Confirming) Business Cycles in Canada A recent staff working paper by Temel Taskin and Franz Ulrich Ruch at the Bank of Canada uses a sophisticated model – a dynamic autoregressive (AR) probit model – and business cycle turning points published by the C.D. Howe […]