Is Canada in a technical recession? Following the latest GDP figures from Statistics Canada, Business Cycle Council members Jeremy Kronick and Philip Cross unpack what a technical recession actually means and why Canada’s current economic challenges run much deeper.
Is Canada in a technical recession? Following the latest GDP figures from Statistics Canada, Business Cycle Council members Jeremy Kronick and Philip Cross unpack what a technical recession actually means and why Canada’s current economic challenges run much deeper.
On May 29, Statistics Canada released preliminary data on Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP declined slightly (0.04 percent), following a 0.25 percent drop in the last quarter of 2025. This has prompted debate over whether the Canadian economy has entered a recession. In Canada, the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business […]
June 5, 2026 – It’s too early to conclude that the Canadian economy is in recession, according to the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council, following Statistics Canada’s latest GDP data showing a second consecutive quarterly decline in real output. Widely recognized as Canada’s recession-dating authority, the Council, comprised of Canada’s preeminent economists, said it […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. Friday’s announcement that the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the loss of more than 100,000 full-time jobs – led to some speculation over the weekend that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. Monday’s inflation numbers, with headline inflation falling to 1.8 per cent in February […]
The Bank of Canada’s most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations reveals a generational divide in financial stress, with prime working-age Canadians (25–54) reporting a record-high 27 percent probability of missing a future debt payment and nearly half of young Canadians (18–24) expecting to miss a payment. Notably, Canadians 55 and older reported just 0.7 percent. […]
Statistics Canada recently revised up GDP numbers for the 2022-2024 period. Happily, the revision suggests Canada’s economy was a bit stronger than previously thought. We should not be complacent, however. Before the revision, GDP per capita was about where it had been in 2017. After the revision, it is only slightly better than 2017, which is […]
From: Peter MacKenzie and Mawakina Bafale To: Economy watchersDate: December 12, 2025Re: Not So Fast on the GDP Champagne Toasts Last month’s third-quarter gross domestic product numbers showed a surprisingly positive 2.6-percent annualized headline number after a weak second quarter had many observers fearing the long-awaited trade war recession had begun. Adding to the supposed positive […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. Third-quarter gross domestic product numbers released last week showed a surprisingly positive 2.6-per-cent annualized headline number after a weak second quarter had many observers fearing the long-awaited trade war recession had begun. Adding to the supposed positive news were recent revisions to previous years’ GDP estimates, which show a rosier story for […]
Business insolvencies surged to 6,188 in 2024 – the highest level in the past 10 years and a 150 percent increase from the 2021 low. As government support programs ended and interest rates climbed, insolvencies rebounded sharply. While data for 2025 to date suggests some stabilization, insolvencies are on pace to remain well above pre-pandemic norms […]
Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a 7.5 percent drop in exports and a 9.4 percent drop in investment in machinery and equipment. The decline was steeper than had been forecast, prompting the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate. The drop […]
September 22, 2025 – Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter of 2025, but conditions do not yet meet the definition of a recession, according to a new Communiqué from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council (BCC). In “Canadian Economy Contracts, But Does Not Meet Recession Definition,” the Council notes that real GDP fell […]
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Is Canada in a technical recession? Following the latest GDP figures from Statistics Canada, Business Cycle Council members Jeremy Kronick and Philip Cross unpack what a technical recession actually means and why Canada’s current economic challenges run much deeper. 
On May 29, Statistics Canada released preliminary data on Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP declined slightly (0.04 percent), following a 0.25 percent drop in the last quarter of 2025. This has prompted debate over whether the Canadian economy has entered a recession. In Canada, the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail. Friday’s announcement that the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the loss of more than 100,000 full-time jobs – led to some speculation over the weekend that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. Monday’s inflation numbers, with headline inflation falling to 1.8 per cent in February […] 
The Bank of Canada’s most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations reveals a generational divide in financial stress, with prime working-age Canadians (25–54) reporting a record-high 27 percent probability of missing a future debt payment and nearly half of young Canadians (18–24) expecting to miss a payment. Notably, Canadians 55 and older reported just 0.7 percent. […] 
Statistics Canada recently revised up GDP numbers for the 2022-2024 period. Happily, the revision suggests Canada’s economy was a bit stronger than previously thought. We should not be complacent, however. Before the revision, GDP per capita was about where it had been in 2017. After the revision, it is only slightly better than 2017, which is […] 
From: Peter MacKenzie and Mawakina Bafale To: Economy watchersDate: December 12, 2025Re: Not So Fast on the GDP Champagne Toasts Last month’s third-quarter gross domestic product numbers showed a surprisingly positive 2.6-percent annualized headline number after a weak second quarter had many observers fearing the long-awaited trade war recession had begun. Adding to the supposed positive […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail. Third-quarter gross domestic product numbers released last week showed a surprisingly positive 2.6-per-cent annualized headline number after a weak second quarter had many observers fearing the long-awaited trade war recession had begun. Adding to the supposed positive news were recent revisions to previous years’ GDP estimates, which show a rosier story for […] 
Business insolvencies surged to 6,188 in 2024 – the highest level in the past 10 years and a 150 percent increase from the 2021 low. As government support programs ended and interest rates climbed, insolvencies rebounded sharply. While data for 2025 to date suggests some stabilization, insolvencies are on pace to remain well above pre-pandemic norms […] 
Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a 7.5 percent drop in exports and a 9.4 percent drop in investment in machinery and equipment. The decline was steeper than had been forecast, prompting the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate. The drop […]