Why Bank Of Canada’s Rate Cut May Have Less Impact Than Poloz Hopes: Globe And Mail Op-ed
Published in the Globe and Mail on July 15, 2015
Steve Ambler is David Dodge Chair in monetary policy at the C.D. Howe Institute and professor at the University of Quebec at Montreal.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to cut its overnight rate target to 0.5 per cent was expected by many in the wake of the disappointing economic news that’s come since the previous announcement in May. Instead of “a return to solid growth in the second quarter,” as the bank predicted then, gross domestic product growth for the entire second quarter may have been negative.
he bank weighs many factors before making a decision on the overnight rate target. The two main ones are the rate of inflation itself and excess capacity…
Philip Cross: Cheap money can hurt the economy: Financial Post Op-Ed
Published in the Financial Post on July 9, 2015
By Philip Cross
Philip Cross is a Research Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute.
Lower interest rates “cause pervasive mispricing in financial markets”
The Canadian and U.S. economy’s unexpected weakness early in 2015 is fanning speculation about lower interest rates, after the Bank of Canada’s surprise cut in mid-January. Before listening to these siren calls for ever more monetary policy stimulus, it would be wise to read the recent annual report of the Bank for International Settlements, the Swiss-based bank for the world’s central banks. Beholden to no government, the BIS speaks with a refreshingly candid, clear and unconventional voice.
The…
C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Recommends Bank of Canada Hold Overnight Rate at 0.75 Percent through Mid-Year; Looks for 1.00 Percent by July 2016
July 9, 2015 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today recommended that the Bank of Canada keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.75 percent at its next announcement on July 15, 2015. Looking ahead, the Council called for the Bank to hold the target at 0.75 percent through the end of the year, raising it to 1.00 percent by July of 2016.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance appropriate for the Bank of Canada as it pursues its 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and Chief Executive Officer, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations…
Mortgage Insurance as a Macroprudential Tool: Dealing with the Risk of a Housing Market Crash in Canada
Canada’s mortgage insurance risk needs a better backstop fund, according to a new report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Mortgage Insurance as a Macroprudential Tool: Dealing with the Risk of a Housing Market Crash in Canada,” authors Thorsten V. Koeppl and James MacGee suggest an era of steadily rising house prices and […] Securing Monetary and Financial Stability: Why Canada Needs a Macroprudential Policy Framework
The Bank of Canada should focus monetary policy on inflation, not systemic risk, according to a new report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Securing Monetary and Financial Stability: Why Canada Needs a Macroprudential Policy Framework,” authors Paul Jenkins and David Longworth address the importance for the conduct of Canadian monetary policy of […] C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Recommends Bank of Canada Hold Overnight Rate at .75 Percent through Mid-Year; Looks for 1.00 Percent by April 2016
April 8, 2015 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today recommended that the Bank of Canada keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.75 percent at its next announcement on April 15, 2015. Looking ahead, the Council called for the Bank to hold the target at .75 percent through to September, and at 1.00 percent a year from now.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance appropriate for the Bank of Canada as it pursues its 2 percent inflation target. Finn Poschmann, the Institute’s Vice President, Policy Analysis, chaired the Council’s 94thmeeting.
Council members make recommendations for…
C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Urges Bank of Canada to Hold Overnight Rate at 1.00 Percent for Next Six Months; Looks for 1.25 Percent by November 2015
November 27, 2014 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today recommended that the Bank of Canada keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 1.00 percent at its next announcement on December 3, 2014. Looking ahead, the Council called for the Bank to hold the target at 1.00 percent through the spring of 2015, and called for a target of 1.25 a year from now.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance appropriate for the Bank of Canada as it aims for its 2 percent inflation target. Finn Poschmann, the Institute’s Vice President, Policy Analysis, chaired the Council’s 91st meeting.
MPC…
Voodoo economics: Busting some popular monetary myths: Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Published in the Globe and Mail on September 23, 2014
By Christopher Ragan
Christopher Ragan is an associate professor of economics at McGill University and a Research Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute.
Last week my friend sent me a link to a short video ranting about our monetary system. I immediately recognized it as another in a large collection of videos I have seen, many of which are sent to me by students pondering the validity of the central messages – which appear quite at odds with the things I say in class.
These videos are filled with so many misconceptions that anyone studying from them would fail an exam in any respectable economics course. Two big monetary myths stand out from the…
Canada’s Limited Solutions To Its Slow-growth Recovery: Globe And Mail Op-ed
Published in the Globe and Mail on August 12, 2014
By Christopher Ragan
Christopher Ragan is an associate professor of economics at McGill University and a Research Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute. His latest publication is What Now? Addressing the Burden of Canada’s Slow-Growth Recovery.
Canada is mired in a slow-growth recovery because the United States and Europe are still repairing their economies in the wake of enormous financial crises. As I argue in a recently released paper from the C.D. Howe Institute, as long as the global economy remains fragile, Canada will not return to growth rates anywhere near our pre-crisis standard of 3 per cent.
Much research…
User Discretion Advised: Fiscal Consolidation and the Recovery
Ontario should not delay fiscal consolidation, while Ottawa should take a more gradual approach than planned, according to a report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “User Discretion Advised: Fiscal Consolidation and the Recovery,” author William Scarth calls on the Ontario provincial government to address its long-term sustainability challenges before it embarks on any major […] Business uncertainty a roadblock on the path to economic recovery: Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Published in the Globe and Mail on July 1, 2014
By Christopher Ragan
Christopher Ragan is an associate professor of economics at McGill University and a research fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute.
The Canadian economy is still mired in a tepid recovery, with real output growing at a rate well below what we saw before the recession. Canadian investment and exports are lagging far below normal levels, partly because the U.S. economy, although showing intermittent signs of life, continues to face its own recovery challenges. One crucial factor affecting both economies is widespread economic uncertainty.
Uncertainty about the future path of the…