September 4, 2025 – The US tariff threat has exposed the fragility of Canada’s economic model, built on deep reliance on its southern neighbour. But tariffs are only the latest shock. Woeful productivity growth, high public debt, and a tax system that discourages growth have been weighing on the Canadian economy for years, according to […]
From: Kim G. C. MoodyTo: Tax observersDate: August 26, 2025Re: The CRA and Government Can Often Have Problems When Administering Tax Proposals As If They Were Law There have been many recent issues regarding the Canada Revenue Agency’s policy that enables it to administer proposed tax law retroactive to the proposed effective date. Most egregious was […]
The federal government’s “comprehensive spending review” is a misnomer. Its narrow focus and carve outs limit the effective coverage to about a third of program spending. The review will deliver at most $22 billion in savings in 2028/29. That is not ambitious enough. Savings of around $50 billion are required to put federal finances on […]
August 14, 2025 – Ottawa’s much-touted “comprehensive spending review” will cover barely one-third of federal program spending and yield savings of at most $22 billion in 2028-29 – less than half the savings needed to put federal finances on a fair and prudent path – according to a new report by the C.D. Howe Institute. […]
Like the 2008/09 financial crisis and recession a decade earlier, the COVID pandemic triggered a build-up of debt by Canadian households, nonfinancial corporations, the federal government and other (provincial and local) governments. After 2008/09, the debts of households, nonfinancial corporations and other governments tended to rise relative to GDP, while fiscal consolidation lowered the federal […]
From: Trevor Tombe To: Deficit observers Date: August 1, 2025Re: Confronting Canada’s Fiscal Future Canada’s pledge to spend 5 percent of GDP on defence, if acted upon, will come with potentially large fiscal costs. Following through will require either sustained deficits, tax increases, or difficult reductions in other areas of federal spending. More likely, it […]
From: Tasnim FarihaTo: Housing watchersDate: July 30, 2025Re: We’re Still Losing the Affordable Housing War Canada’s housing supply gap is widening, not narrowing. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which first sounded the alarm in 2022, has now quietly moved away from its 2030 target for restoring housing affordability. The agency has shifted to […]
From: Leslie Shiell and Nicholas DahirTo: Tax observersDate: July 17, 2025Re: From Rebate to Rate Cut: Low-Income Households Lose Out Under the discontinued federal carbon price and rebate system (CPRS), eligible Canadians received tax-free rebate payments to offset the cost of carbon pricing with many households receiving more in rebates than they paid in fuel […]
An Assessment of Canada’s 2021-22 Inflation Surge by David Andolfatto and Fernando M. Martin We argue that the fiscal policy responses to pandemic-induced disruptions in economic activity were primarily responsible for the 2021-22 inflation surge, and that there was little the Bank of Canada could have done to prevent it from happening. Our view is […]
July 17, 2025 – A new C.D. Howe Institute report argues it was fiscal policy – not monetary – that drove the 2021/2022 inflation surge and that there was little the Bank of Canada could have done to prevent it. In “An Assessment of Canada’s 2021-22 Inflation Surge,” economists David Andolfatto and Fernando M. Martin […]
From: John Lester and Alexandre LaurinTo: Canada’s budget observersDate: July 15, 2025Re: Ottawa’s Cost-Cutting Axe Needs to Swing More Widely The federal government has promised a spending review aimed at limiting the growth in its operating spending, also known as direct program expenses, to two per cent a year. With the new NATO commitment to increase defence-related spending by […]
Between 2010 and 2023, the reliance of Canada’s federal, provincial, and local governments on income taxes – measured as a share of GDP – increased by nearly 25 percent. In contrast, reliance on consumption and property taxes remained largely unchanged over the same period. As outlined in the Institute’s Shadow Budget, any future tax increases, […]
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From: Kim G. C. MoodyTo: Tax observersDate: August 26, 2025Re: The CRA and Government Can Often Have Problems When Administering Tax Proposals As If They Were Law There have been many recent issues regarding the Canada Revenue Agency’s policy that enables it to administer proposed tax law retroactive to the proposed effective date. Most egregious was […] 
The federal government’s “comprehensive spending review” is a misnomer. Its narrow focus and carve outs limit the effective coverage to about a third of program spending. The review will deliver at most $22 billion in savings in 2028/29. That is not ambitious enough. Savings of around $50 billion are required to put federal finances on […] 
Like the 2008/09 financial crisis and recession a decade earlier, the COVID pandemic triggered a build-up of debt by Canadian households, nonfinancial corporations, the federal government and other (provincial and local) governments. After 2008/09, the debts of households, nonfinancial corporations and other governments tended to rise relative to GDP, while fiscal consolidation lowered the federal […] 
From: Trevor Tombe To: Deficit observers Date: August 1, 2025Re: Confronting Canada’s Fiscal Future Canada’s pledge to spend 5 percent of GDP on defence, if acted upon, will come with potentially large fiscal costs. Following through will require either sustained deficits, tax increases, or difficult reductions in other areas of federal spending. More likely, it […] 
From: Tasnim FarihaTo: Housing watchersDate: July 30, 2025Re: We’re Still Losing the Affordable Housing War Canada’s housing supply gap is widening, not narrowing. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which first sounded the alarm in 2022, has now quietly moved away from its 2030 target for restoring housing affordability. The agency has shifted to […] 
From: Leslie Shiell and Nicholas DahirTo: Tax observersDate: July 17, 2025Re: From Rebate to Rate Cut: Low-Income Households Lose Out Under the discontinued federal carbon price and rebate system (CPRS), eligible Canadians received tax-free rebate payments to offset the cost of carbon pricing with many households receiving more in rebates than they paid in fuel […] 
An Assessment of Canada’s 2021-22 Inflation Surge by David Andolfatto and Fernando M. Martin We argue that the fiscal policy responses to pandemic-induced disruptions in economic activity were primarily responsible for the 2021-22 inflation surge, and that there was little the Bank of Canada could have done to prevent it from happening. Our view is […] 
From: John Lester and Alexandre LaurinTo: Canada’s budget observersDate: July 15, 2025Re: Ottawa’s Cost-Cutting Axe Needs to Swing More Widely The federal government has promised a spending review aimed at limiting the growth in its operating spending, also known as direct program expenses, to two per cent a year. With the new NATO commitment to increase defence-related spending by […] 
Between 2010 and 2023, the reliance of Canada’s federal, provincial, and local governments on income taxes – measured as a share of GDP – increased by nearly 25 percent. In contrast, reliance on consumption and property taxes remained largely unchanged over the same period. As outlined in the Institute’s Shadow Budget, any future tax increases, […]