Entre Charybde et Scylla – La Press Opinion
Les banques centrales s’approchent du dangereux passage entre Charybde et Scylla, les monstres marins de la mythologie grecque qui menaçaient les navires. Sauf que les écueils d’une faible croissance et de l’inflation sont bien réels.
La relance économique est enclenchée. Le Québec, pour l’un, a retrouvé son niveau de PIB d’avant pandémie dès mars. Mais ici comme ailleurs, cette reprise est encore mal assurée et inégale, comme on le voit dans les services livrés en proximité avec la clientèle.
L’inflation est manifeste, provoquée en grande partie par la perturbation des chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales causée par la COVID-19, ce qui suggère qu’elle serait transitoire. Mais si les goulots d’étranglement persistent, ce…
Ambler, Kronick – What’s Next for Monetary Policy?
From: Steve Ambler and Jeremy M. Kronick To: Canada’s inflation watchers Date: September 30, 2021 Re: What’s Next for Monetary Policy? Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight interest rate at 25 basis points while maintaining the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) program by continuing to purchase Government of Canada debt […] William White on BNN – Central Banks Are Caught in a Debt Trap
William White, Senior Fellow at C.D. Howe Institute and former Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss the role of central banks as inflation rises around the world and the challenges of rebuilding Canada’s economy ahead of a federal election.
The Leaders Really Should Talk Monetary Policy – Financial Post Op-ed
Statistics Canada’s latest gross domestic product release contained at least two surprises. The first was that real GDP fell at an annualized rate of one per cent in the second quarter. That made headlines. With all the stimulus and rising optimism about recovery from the COVID recession, why the setback?
But a second surprise was that nominal spending — measured in the dollars that actually changed hands, before adjustment for price changes — rose at an eight per cent annualized rate. That raised eyebrows. The difference between a one-per cent real fall and an eight-per cent nominal rise is nine per cent higher prices. Real activity slipped a little. The value of our money slipped a lot.
We already knew that consumer…
L’étau réglementaire se resserre sur les cryptos – La Presse Opinion
La partie ne sera pas facile, mais les régulateurs ont commencé à serrer la vis au Bitcoin, à ses milliers de cousins cryptos et aux infrastructures qui gravitent dans cet univers opaque et apatride.
La Financial Conduct Authority du Royaume-Uni, incapable de superviser adéquatement Binance, la plus grande Bourse de cryptomonnaies au monde, interdit ses activités sur son territoire. La plateforme n’a pas répondu aux questions de base posées par le régulateur, qui estime que ses « produits complexes et à haut risque » font courir des « risques significatifs » aux investisseurs.
Binance, incorporée dans les îles Caïman, n’a pas de siège social. Chaque mois, il se négocie sur cette Bourse immatérielle des…
C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Calls for Bank of Canada to Hold Overnight Rate Target at 0.25 Percent through Fall, Maintain Bond Purchases at $2 Billion per Week
September 2, 2021 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 0.25 percent through October, before raising it to 0.50 percent by March of 2022, and to 0.75 percent by September of 2022. It also recommends that the Bank maintain its quantitative-easing purchases of Government of Canada bonds at the current pace of $2 billion per week.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s CEO, chairs the Council. Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming…
S3 E17: Normalizing Monetary Policy with Robert S. Kaplan
How will the US Federal Reserve normalize central bank policy without crashing the economy? Dallas Federal Reserve President and CEO Robert S. Kaplan tells Michael Hainsworth why he’s not focused on raising interest rates any time soon, and the role the Delta variant of COVID-19 may play. Bank Of Canada Has Loosened Policy Over The Past Six Weeks – Globe And Mail Op-ed
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate at 25 basis points while scaling back its quantitative easing (QE) program, reducing the pace of its purchases of Government of Canada debt from $3-billion a week to $2-billion. Lifting its foot off the QE pedal is warranted given recent inflation readings and other underlying metrics. At the same time, however, the unchanged overnight rate target actually represents an easing of monetary policy since the bank’s last announcement six weeks ago, because inflation expectations have increased, and the recovering economy has probably raised the level of the overnight rate that would be consistent with steady growth and 2-per-cent inflation.
Let’s unpack these two…
C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Calls for Bank of Canada to Hold Overnight Rate Target at 0.25 Percent until Fall, Hike to 0.50 Percent by Next July, Reduce Bond Purchases
July 8, 2021 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 0.25 percent at least until January of 2022, and raise it to 0.50 percent by July of 2022. It also recommends that the Bank reduce its quantitative-easing purchases of Government of Canada bonds below its current pace of $3 billion per week.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s CEO, chairs the Council. Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest-rate announcement, the…
William B.P. Robson – Brakes, Please, for Your Tag-team Stimulus
To: The Federal Government and Bank of Canada From: William B.P. Robson Date: June 24, 2021 Re: Brakes, Please, for Your Tag-team Stimulus Governments in the advanced economies mounted a massive fiscal response to the COVID crisis. They ramped up spending, mainly on income supports to individuals and businesses, and financed it by borrowing. Central banks also responded on […] Mission Creep and Monetary Policy
Bank of Canada Should Beware “Mission Creep” When the Bank of Canada and the Government of Canada renew their inflation targeting agreement later this year, they should disregard proposals to expand the mandate of monetary policy beyond its central goal of achieving and preserving price stability. These proposals include suggestions that monetary policy promote a greener economy, […] Ambler, Kronick, Robson – Taking Inflation Warnings Seriously
From: Steve Ambler, Jeremy M. Kronick, and William B.P. Robson To: Bank of Canada Watchers Date: June 17, 2021 Re: Taking Inflation Warnings Seriously Last week, the Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate at 0.25 percent, and kept its purchases of Government of Canada bonds at $3-billion per week. Forecasters and financial market participants […]