‘Transitory’ inflation does lasting harm – Globe & Mail Op-Ed

Wednesday’s inflation report from Statistics Canada showed October’s consumer price index up 4.7 per cent from a year earlier. We are still hearing about “transitory” inflation from many forecasters and central bankers. Canadians dismayed by recent higher prices for food, energy, appliances and much else should not take much reassurance from this term.

Many transitory events – storms, pandemics, recessions – leave lasting effects. With the benefit of hindsight, the inflation from the mid-1960s to the early 1990s was transitory. It came and went. Two-per-cent inflation was common until 1965 and became an official Bank of Canada target after 1995. But between those two dates, the consumer price index more than quintupled. The…

Ambler, Kronick – The Bank of Canada’s Welcome Inflation Blink

Inflation and the Bank of Canada: the Bank blinks – Financial Post Op-Ed

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight interest rate at 25 basis points and ended its quantitative easing (QE) program, which, through purchases of government bonds, had more than quadrupled its balance sheet. This was the right call given what now seems to be persistent underlying inflation.

From now on, the Bank will only purchase government bonds to replace ones that mature. Its balance sheet will stay high compared to its pre-pandemic level but, in theory, won’t grow further. Tightening monetary policy to deal with inflation above target can now come in only one of two forms: shrinking the balance sheet by selling or not replacing maturing government bonds or, more likely, hiking the overnight…

C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Calls for Bank of Canada to Hold Overnight Rate Target at 0.25 Percent Next Week, Hike to 1.00 Percent Next Year, Cut Bond Purchases

October 21, 2021 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 0.25 percent through December, before raising it to 0.50 percent by April of 2022, and to 1.00 percent by October of 2022. It also recommends that the Bank reduce its quantitative-easing purchases of Government of Canada bonds from the current pace of $2 billion per week.

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s CEO, chairs the Council. Council members make recommendations for the Bank…

Entre Charybde et Scylla – La Press Opinion

Les banques centrales s’approchent du dangereux passage entre Charybde et Scylla, les monstres marins de la mythologie grecque qui menaçaient les navires. Sauf que les écueils d’une faible croissance et de l’inflation sont bien réels.

La relance économique est enclenchée. Le Québec, pour l’un, a retrouvé son niveau de PIB d’avant pandémie dès mars. Mais ici comme ailleurs, cette reprise est encore mal assurée et inégale, comme on le voit dans les services livrés en proximité avec la clientèle.

L’inflation est manifeste, provoquée en grande partie par la perturbation des chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales causée par la COVID-19, ce qui suggère qu’elle serait transitoire. Mais si les goulots d’étranglement persistent, ce…

Ambler, Kronick – What’s Next for Monetary Policy?

William White on BNN – Central Banks Are Caught in a Debt Trap

William White, Senior Fellow at C.D. Howe Institute and former Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss the role of central banks as inflation rises around the world and the challenges of rebuilding Canada’s economy ahead of a federal election.

The Leaders Really Should Talk Monetary Policy – Financial Post Op-ed

Statistics Canada’s latest gross domestic product release contained at least two surprises. The first was that real GDP fell at an annualized rate of one per cent in the second quarter. That made headlines. With all the stimulus and rising optimism about recovery from the COVID recession, why the setback?

But a second surprise was that nominal spending — measured in the dollars that actually changed hands, before adjustment for price changes — rose at an eight per cent annualized rate. That raised eyebrows. The difference between a one-per cent real fall and an eight-per cent nominal rise is nine per cent higher prices. Real activity slipped a little. The value of our money slipped a lot.

We already knew that consumer…

L’étau réglementaire se resserre sur les cryptos – La Presse Opinion

La partie ne sera pas facile, mais les régulateurs ont commencé à serrer la vis au Bitcoin, à ses milliers de cousins cryptos et aux infrastructures qui gravitent dans cet univers opaque et apatride.

La Financial Conduct Authority du Royaume-Uni, incapable de superviser adéquatement Binance, la plus grande Bourse de cryptomonnaies au monde, interdit ses activités sur son territoire. La plateforme n’a pas répondu aux questions de base posées par le régulateur, qui estime que ses « produits complexes et à haut risque » font courir des « risques significatifs » aux investisseurs.

Binance, incorporée dans les îles Caïman, n’a pas de siège social. Chaque mois, il se négocie sur cette Bourse immatérielle des…

C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Calls for Bank of Canada to Hold Overnight Rate Target at 0.25 Percent through Fall, Maintain Bond Purchases at $2 Billion per Week

September 2, 2021 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 0.25 percent through October, before raising it to 0.50 percent by March of 2022, and to 0.75 percent by September of 2022. It also recommends that the Bank maintain its quantitative-easing purchases of Government of Canada bonds at the current pace of $2 billion per week.

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s CEO, chairs the Council. Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming…

S3 E17: Normalizing Monetary Policy with Robert S. Kaplan

Bank Of Canada Has Loosened Policy Over The Past Six Weeks – Globe And Mail Op-ed

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate at 25 basis points while scaling back its quantitative easing (QE) program, reducing the pace of its purchases of Government of Canada debt from $3-billion a week to $2-billion. Lifting its foot off the QE pedal is warranted given recent inflation readings and other underlying metrics. At the same time, however, the unchanged overnight rate target actually represents an easing of monetary policy since the bank’s last announcement six weeks ago, because inflation expectations have increased, and the recovering economy has probably raised the level of the overnight rate that would be consistent with steady growth and 2-per-cent inflation.

Let’s unpack these two…