From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler To: Interest rate watchers Date: June 16, 2026 Re: The Uncertain Times Confronted by the Bank of Canada The Bank of Canada held its policy rate constant at 2.25 percent last week, meeting market expectations. This was despite headline inflation increasing to 2.8 percent in April, up from 2.4 percent in March, near the upper end […]
16 juin 2026 – L’utilisation de plusieurs indicateurs de l’inflation sous-jacente par la Banque du Canada est essentielle pour la bonne conduite de la politique monétaire, mais elle risque de nuire à la compréhension de celle-ci par le public et de compliquer les efforts visant à communiquer clairement son orientation, selon un nouveau rapport de […]
by Jeremy Kronick, Steve Ambler and Thorsten Koeppl This E-Brief is the third in a series related to the Bank of Canada’s 2026 renewal of its inflation-targeting agreement with the federal government. We examine the desirable properties of underlying inflation measures and assess whether the measures available to the Bank meet those criteria. We find […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate constant at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday, meeting market expectations. This was in spite of headline inflation increasing to 2.8 per cent in April, up from 2.4 per cent in March, near the upper end of the central bank’s 1 to 3 per […]
From: Steve Ambler and Jeremy M. Kronick To: Recession watchers Date: June 8, 2026 Re: Don’t Be Too Quick to Call a Recession On May 29, Statistics Canada released preliminary estimates of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP declined slightly (0.04 percent), following a 0.25 percent drop in the last quarter of 2025. […]
June 4, 2026 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 2.25 percent at its next announcement on June 10, maintain it at that level until December of this year, and raise it to 2.5 percent by June 2027. The MPC is chaired by Jeremy Kronick, the Institute’s President and […]
From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler To: Interest rate watchers Date: May 6, 2026 Re: Weak Supply Side and Falling Demand: A Bank of Canada Conundrum Markets had been confident the Bank of Canada would hold its policy rate constant last week, which it did despite the upward blip in inflation to 2.4 percent in March, up from 1.8 percent in February. As was […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. Markets have been confident that the Bank of Canada would hold its policy rate constant, which it did this morning, despite the upward blip in inflation to 2.4 per cent in March, up from 1.8 per cent in February. As was the case at the time of its last announcement […]
April 23, 2026 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 2.25 percent at its next announcement on April 29, maintain it at that level until October of this year, and raise it to 2.5 percent by April 2027. The MPC is chaired by Jeremy Kronick, the Institute’s President and […]
From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerTo: Interest rate watchersDate: March 23, 2026 Re: Iran, CUSMA: Just Two Reasons Bank was Right to Hold Steady on its Rate The loss of 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the evaporation of more than 100,000 full-time positions – led to speculation early last week that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. Friday’s announcement that the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the loss of more than 100,000 full-time jobs – led to some speculation over the weekend that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. Monday’s inflation numbers, with headline inflation falling to 1.8 per cent in February […]
March 12, 2026 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 2.25 percent at its next announcement on March 18 and maintain it at that level until March 2027. The MPC is chaired by Jeremy Kronick, […]
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From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler To: Interest rate watchers Date: June 16, 2026 Re: The Uncertain Times Confronted by the Bank of Canada The Bank of Canada held its policy rate constant at 2.25 percent last week, meeting market expectations. This was despite headline inflation increasing to 2.8 percent in April, up from 2.4 percent in March, near the upper end […] 
by Jeremy Kronick, Steve Ambler and Thorsten Koeppl This E-Brief is the third in a series related to the Bank of Canada’s 2026 renewal of its inflation-targeting agreement with the federal government. We examine the desirable properties of underlying inflation measures and assess whether the measures available to the Bank meet those criteria. We find […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate constant at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday, meeting market expectations. This was in spite of headline inflation increasing to 2.8 per cent in April, up from 2.4 per cent in March, near the upper end of the central bank’s 1 to 3 per […] 
From: Steve Ambler and Jeremy M. Kronick To: Recession watchers Date: June 8, 2026 Re: Don’t Be Too Quick to Call a Recession On May 29, Statistics Canada released preliminary estimates of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP declined slightly (0.04 percent), following a 0.25 percent drop in the last quarter of 2025. […] 
June 4, 2026 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 2.25 percent at its next announcement on June 10, maintain it at that level until December of this year, and raise it to 2.5 percent by June 2027. The MPC is chaired by Jeremy Kronick, the Institute’s President and […] 
From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler To: Interest rate watchers Date: May 6, 2026 Re: Weak Supply Side and Falling Demand: A Bank of Canada Conundrum Markets had been confident the Bank of Canada would hold its policy rate constant last week, which it did despite the upward blip in inflation to 2.4 percent in March, up from 1.8 percent in February. As was […] 
From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerTo: Interest rate watchersDate: March 23, 2026 Re: Iran, CUSMA: Just Two Reasons Bank was Right to Hold Steady on its Rate The loss of 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the evaporation of more than 100,000 full-time positions – led to speculation early last week that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail. Friday’s announcement that the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the loss of more than 100,000 full-time jobs – led to some speculation over the weekend that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. Monday’s inflation numbers, with headline inflation falling to 1.8 per cent in February […]