Five years ago, many Canadians locked in mortgages when the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate was just 0.25 percent. Despite recent rate cuts, today’s five-year fixed mortgage rates remain about 25 percent higher than in 2020. As over a million mortgages come up for renewal in 2025–26, many households will face higher payments – raising concerns […]
Published in The Globe and Mail By Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent. Although headline inflation has been at or below target for 9 of the last 11 months, there are some signs of underlying upward pressure on inflation. Also, Canada’s economic performance has […]
Published in The Globe and Mail By Jerzy Konieczny and Steve Ambler U.S. President Donald Trump has a new target. It’s not China, Mexico or Prime Minister Mark Carney, but Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve. If Mr. Trump gets his way, the fallout won’t stop with the U.S. – it will hit Canada, too. The President has […]
July 24, 2025 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to leave its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, unchanged at 2.75 percent at its next announcement on July 30th. The MPC further calls for the Bank to cut the target to 2.50 percent at […]
Should Canada adopt America’s monetary policy? The Institute’s Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler explain to our Michael Hainsworth that changing the way we guide the economy to be more like the U.S. would have disastrous results.
Should Canada adopt America’s monetary policy? The Institute’s Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler explain to our Michael Hainsworth that changing the way we guide the economy to be more like the U.S. would have disastrous results.
An Assessment of Canada’s 2021-22 Inflation Surge by David Andolfatto and Fernando M. Martin We argue that the fiscal policy responses to pandemic-induced disruptions in economic activity were primarily responsible for the 2021-22 inflation surge, and that there was little the Bank of Canada could have done to prevent it from happening. Our view is […]
July 17, 2025 – A new C.D. Howe Institute report argues it was fiscal policy – not monetary – that drove the 2021/2022 inflation surge and that there was little the Bank of Canada could have done to prevent it. In “An Assessment of Canada’s 2021-22 Inflation Surge,” economists David Andolfatto and Fernando M. Martin […]
To: Bank of Canada observers From: Steve Ambler, Thorsten Koeppl, and Jeremy M. Kronick Date: June 13, 2025Re: Flexible Inflation Targeting Beats a Dual Mandate for the Bank of Canada. Let Us Count the Ways Toward the end of next year the Bank of Canada and the federal government will renew their agreement concerning the monetary control […]
To: Interest rate watchersFrom: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerDate: June 12, 2025Re: With Recession in the Wind, a Rate Cut Might Have Been Wise The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 2.75 percent last week, confirming market expectations. Data showing stubbornly high underlying inflation and robust-looking first-quarter GDP had led markets to price in only […]
The 3-month change in core-age employment (25-54) was negative for the first time since inflation began rising above 2 percent in 2021. Falls in core-age employment after growth of the kind we have seen in the last few years are often a sign of economic weakness. For more on why this drop in core-age employment […]
Published in The Globe and Mail The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday, confirming market expectations. Data showing stubbornly high underlying inflation and robust-looking first-quarter gross domestic product had led markets to price in only about a 20-per-cent probability of this cut. While we understand the bank’s thinking, we believe they […]
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Five years ago, many Canadians locked in mortgages when the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate was just 0.25 percent. Despite recent rate cuts, today’s five-year fixed mortgage rates remain about 25 percent higher than in 2020. As over a million mortgages come up for renewal in 2025–26, many households will face higher payments – raising concerns […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail By Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent. Although headline inflation has been at or below target for 9 of the last 11 months, there are some signs of underlying upward pressure on inflation. Also, Canada’s economic performance has […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail By Jerzy Konieczny and Steve Ambler U.S. President Donald Trump has a new target. It’s not China, Mexico or Prime Minister Mark Carney, but Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve. If Mr. Trump gets his way, the fallout won’t stop with the U.S. – it will hit Canada, too. The President has […] 
July 24, 2025 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to leave its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, unchanged at 2.75 percent at its next announcement on July 30th. The MPC further calls for the Bank to cut the target to 2.50 percent at […] 
Should Canada adopt America’s monetary policy? The Institute’s Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler explain to our Michael Hainsworth that changing the way we guide the economy to be more like the U.S. would have disastrous results. 
An Assessment of Canada’s 2021-22 Inflation Surge by David Andolfatto and Fernando M. Martin We argue that the fiscal policy responses to pandemic-induced disruptions in economic activity were primarily responsible for the 2021-22 inflation surge, and that there was little the Bank of Canada could have done to prevent it from happening. Our view is […] 
To: Interest rate watchersFrom: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerDate: June 12, 2025Re: With Recession in the Wind, a Rate Cut Might Have Been Wise The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 2.75 percent last week, confirming market expectations. Data showing stubbornly high underlying inflation and robust-looking first-quarter GDP had led markets to price in only […] 
The 3-month change in core-age employment (25-54) was negative for the first time since inflation began rising above 2 percent in 2021. Falls in core-age employment after growth of the kind we have seen in the last few years are often a sign of economic weakness. For more on why this drop in core-age employment […]