From: Steve Ambler and Jeremy M. Kronick To: Recession watchers Date: June 8, 2026 Re: Don’t Be Too Quick to Call a Recession On May 29, Statistics Canada released preliminary estimates of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP declined slightly (0.04 percent), following a 0.25 percent drop in the last quarter of 2025. […]
June 4, 2026 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 2.25 percent at its next announcement on June 10, maintain it at that level until December of this year, and raise it to 2.5 percent by June 2027. The MPC is chaired by Jeremy Kronick, the Institute’s President and […]
From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler To: Interest rate watchers Date: May 6, 2026 Re: Weak Supply Side and Falling Demand: A Bank of Canada Conundrum Markets had been confident the Bank of Canada would hold its policy rate constant last week, which it did despite the upward blip in inflation to 2.4 percent in March, up from 1.8 percent in February. As was […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. Markets have been confident that the Bank of Canada would hold its policy rate constant, which it did this morning, despite the upward blip in inflation to 2.4 per cent in March, up from 1.8 per cent in February. As was the case at the time of its last announcement […]
April 23, 2026 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 2.25 percent at its next announcement on April 29, maintain it at that level until October of this year, and raise it to 2.5 percent by April 2027. The MPC is chaired by Jeremy Kronick, the Institute’s President and […]
From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerTo: Interest rate watchersDate: March 23, 2026 Re: Iran, CUSMA: Just Two Reasons Bank was Right to Hold Steady on its Rate The loss of 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the evaporation of more than 100,000 full-time positions – led to speculation early last week that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. Friday’s announcement that the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the loss of more than 100,000 full-time jobs – led to some speculation over the weekend that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. Monday’s inflation numbers, with headline inflation falling to 1.8 per cent in February […]
March 12, 2026 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 2.25 percent at its next announcement on March 18 and maintain it at that level until March 2027. The MPC is chaired by Jeremy Kronick, […]
Following the post-pandemic surge, inflation first returned to its two percent target in August 2024. Over the next year, inflation was at or below target for all but two months. Since September 2025, it has been above target. A big driver of this increase has been soaring food prices. Without food price growth, headline inflation since September […]
To: Bank of Canada observersFrom: Don DrummondRe: Rosy Free Trade Assumptions Hobble Bank of Canada Projections Credit the Bank of Canada for a realistic depiction of risks facing the global and Canadian economies in its recent quarterly report. In the central bank’s view, the world is becoming more fragmented, geopolitical risks are elevated and […]
Published in The Globe and Mail. Credit the Bank of Canada for a realistic depiction of risks facing the global and Canadian economies in its recent quarterly report. In the central bank’s view, the world is becoming more fragmented, geopolitical risks are elevated and for Canada, the future of trade in North America is an important uncertainty. […]
To: Inflation observersFrom: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerDate: February 5, 2026Re: The Bank of Canada’s Coming Food Price Conundrum Unsurprisingly¸ the Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25 percent last week. We agree with the decision, though we believe food price increases are likely to pose an ongoing challenge for the Bank, testing the limits of […]
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From: Steve Ambler and Jeremy M. Kronick To: Recession watchers Date: June 8, 2026 Re: Don’t Be Too Quick to Call a Recession On May 29, Statistics Canada released preliminary estimates of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP declined slightly (0.04 percent), following a 0.25 percent drop in the last quarter of 2025. […] 
June 4, 2026 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 2.25 percent at its next announcement on June 10, maintain it at that level until December of this year, and raise it to 2.5 percent by June 2027. The MPC is chaired by Jeremy Kronick, the Institute’s President and […] 
From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler To: Interest rate watchers Date: May 6, 2026 Re: Weak Supply Side and Falling Demand: A Bank of Canada Conundrum Markets had been confident the Bank of Canada would hold its policy rate constant last week, which it did despite the upward blip in inflation to 2.4 percent in March, up from 1.8 percent in February. As was […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail. Markets have been confident that the Bank of Canada would hold its policy rate constant, which it did this morning, despite the upward blip in inflation to 2.4 per cent in March, up from 1.8 per cent in February. As was the case at the time of its last announcement […] 
From: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerTo: Interest rate watchersDate: March 23, 2026 Re: Iran, CUSMA: Just Two Reasons Bank was Right to Hold Steady on its Rate The loss of 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the evaporation of more than 100,000 full-time positions – led to speculation early last week that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail. Friday’s announcement that the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs in February – driven by the loss of more than 100,000 full-time jobs – led to some speculation over the weekend that the Bank of Canada might cut its policy rate. Monday’s inflation numbers, with headline inflation falling to 1.8 per cent in February […] 
Following the post-pandemic surge, inflation first returned to its two percent target in August 2024. Over the next year, inflation was at or below target for all but two months. Since September 2025, it has been above target. A big driver of this increase has been soaring food prices. Without food price growth, headline inflation since September […] 
To: Bank of Canada observersFrom: Don DrummondRe: Rosy Free Trade Assumptions Hobble Bank of Canada Projections Credit the Bank of Canada for a realistic depiction of risks facing the global and Canadian economies in its recent quarterly report. In the central bank’s view, the world is becoming more fragmented, geopolitical risks are elevated and […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail. Credit the Bank of Canada for a realistic depiction of risks facing the global and Canadian economies in its recent quarterly report. In the central bank’s view, the world is becoming more fragmented, geopolitical risks are elevated and for Canada, the future of trade in North America is an important uncertainty. […] 
To: Inflation observersFrom: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerDate: February 5, 2026Re: The Bank of Canada’s Coming Food Price Conundrum Unsurprisingly¸ the Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25 percent last week. We agree with the decision, though we believe food price increases are likely to pose an ongoing challenge for the Bank, testing the limits of […]