Arithmetic Upends the Trump Mercantilist Fallacy

From: Steve Ambler and Jerzy Konieczny To: Trump administration observersDate: September 23, 2025Re: Arithmetic upends the Trump mercantilist fallacy This summer, the Trump administration announced trade deals with Japan and the European Union. Each involved lower barriers to US exports, more foreign direct investment into the United States, and higher US tariffs on EU and […]

Trumpian mercantilism, meet basic arithmetic

Published in Financial Post. This summer, the Trump administration announced trade deals with Japan and the European Union (EU). Each involved lower barriers to U.S. exports, more foreign direct investment (FDI) into the U.S., and higher U.S. tariffs on EU and Japanese goods. The U.S. looked like it was winning on all fronts. According to […]

The case for a rate cut was clear, but the future remains cloudy

Published in The Globe and Mail. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent. The cut was widely anticipated by financial markets. The cracks in the Canadian economy we mentioned in these pages after the bank’s last announcement in July have become far more visible. Gross domestic […]

The Three Big Challenges Facing Parliament Next Week

From: Colin BusbyTo: Parliament watchersDate: September 12, 2025Re: The Three Big Challenges Facing Parliament Next Week Three big policy issues will be the focal point when Parliament resumes next week. The government faces a challenging balancing act as it works against the backdrop of a weakening economy – the unemployment rate is at 7.1 percent […]

Weak Within and Shaken by Tariffs, Canada Needs a New Economic and Fiscal Model

Published in The Globe and Mail. A trading nation, Canada lives next to what has long been a big welcoming market in a generally competitive free-trading world. That once free American market is fast being restricted by tariffs, for now made passably permeable by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is likely to be made more U.S.-protectionist […]

Shaken by Tariffs, Still Weak from Within: Canada Needs a New Economic and Fiscal Model

Edited remarks delivered to the School of Policy Studies, Queen’s University, on September 5, 2025.   Introduction: Canada Faces Layers of Economic and Fiscal Challenges There is keen awareness that Canada faces a serious economic challenge – if not a crisis – emanating from the US tariff threat. A desperate attempt is being made to […]

Tariffs Are Exposing Canada’s Deeper Economic Weaknesses

September 4, 2025 – The US tariff threat has exposed the fragility of Canada’s economic model, built on deep reliance on its southern neighbour. But tariffs are only the latest shock. Woeful productivity growth, high public debt, and a tax system that discourages growth have been weighing on the Canadian economy for years, according to […]

Canada’s Aluminum Production and US Tariffs

From: Brian LivingstonTo: Canadian Trade NegotiatorsDate: September 2, 2025Re: Aluminum Tariffs Canada supplies over half of the aluminum available in the United States (see chart).  These sales of 2.8 million tonnes/year of raw aluminum from Canada to the US take place under agreements made between many companies.  However, disrupting those business plans, the United States […]

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