Lawrence Herman – On Tariffs, There are Rules. And Here’s One, Mr. Trump
From: Lawrence Herman To: Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Global Affairs Date: March 8, 2018 Re: On Tariffs, There are Rules. And Here’s One, Mr. Trump ” . . . or other emergency in international relations.” These are key words in Article XXI of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and, in terms of international […]Daniel Schwanen – NAFTA: How Donald Trump, and Canadian Consumers, Can Both Win
From: Daniel Schwanen To: The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Global Affairs Date: February 23, 2018 Re: NAFTA: How Donald Trump, and Canadian Consumers, Can Both Win To avoid stalemate in the current NAFTA renegotiations, one thing seems sure: US President Trump will have to be able to declare a political “win” in the trade column. It is […]Omran, Kronick – Could the Eleventh Try Be the Charm for a Canada-India Trade Deal?
From: Farah Omran and Jeremy M. Kronick To: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Date: February 21, 2018 Re: Could the Eleventh Try Be the Charm for a Canada-India Trade Deal? Eight years and 10 rounds after the formal launch of trade negotiations between Canada and India, an eleventh round is long overdue. Your trip to India this […]Where do NAFTA talks go from here? – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
We got a blunt and sobering message last week from Steve Verheul, Canada’s head NAFTA negotiator, telling us that negotiations with the Americans are bogged down and, apart from some agreement on peripheral things, there’s absolutely no movement on the really tough issues.
The fundamental problem, Mr. Verheul said, is that the United States isn’t approaching the negotiations with the objective of concluding a balanced deal. The Trump administration’s position is “America First” and “America Only,” reflecting the tone of the President’s bellicose inaugural address. As a result, the United States has tabled one-sided, intransigent positions, non-starters for Canada from day one. U.S. negotiators have no room to compromise because…
Jeff Mahon – How Canada Can Soothe the US on Currency Manipulation
From: Jeff Mahon To: Canada’s NAFTA Negotiators Date: February 13, 2018 Re: How Canada Can Soothe the US on Currency Manipulation The NAFTA renegotiations under way since last August have so far defied the expectations of collapse. And some people have now even seized on the opportunity they present for Canada to lead on issues that meet US […]Understanding the Volatility of the Canadian Exchange Rate
Contrary to popular belief, commodity prices are not the best predictor of the future exchange rate for the Canadian dollar, according to new research from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Understanding the Volatility of the Canadian Exchange Rate”, authors Martin Eichenbaum, Benjamin K. Johannsen, and Sergio Rebelo find the current real exchange rate, (ie., minus […] Jon R. Johnson – Do the NAFTA Auto Rules of Origin Really Need Modernizing?
From: Jon R. Johnson To: Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Global Affairs Date: January 22, 2018 Re: Do the NAFTA Auto Rules of Origin Really Need Modernizing? A recent Globe and Mail article, Canada aims to break through NAFTA auto roadblock (Jan. 11), set out misunderstandings about the NAFTA automotive rules of origin that need correcting. […]Daniel Schwanen – How About a NAFTA Side Deal? (Part One)
From: Daniel Schwanen To: The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Global Affairs Date: January 19, 2018 Re: How About a NAFTA Side Deal? (Part One) There has been speculation that Donald Trump, for domestic political calculations, or simply to put pressure on Canada and Mexico, may soon formally announce his intention to withdraw the US from NAFTA. His State […]Daniel Schwanen – How About a NAFTA Side Deal? (Part Two)
From: Daniel Schwanen To: The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Global Affairs Date: January 19, 2018 Re: How About a NAFTA Side Deal? (Part Two) As mentioned in my last memo, in next week’s round of NAFTA renegotiations in Montreal, Canada should contemplate reaching out to the US side on substantive points that have proved intractable in principle so […]Kronick And Omran – China And Australia, Lessons For Canada’s Financial Sector
From: Jeremy Kronick and Farah Omran To: François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of International Trade Date: January 17, 2018 Re: China and Australia, Lessons for Canada’s Financial Sector China presents an enormous opportunity to the global economy, including Canada’s. A recent C.D. Howe intelligence memo highlighted the importance of the China-Canada relationship – along with some of […] The post-NAFTA world is starting to take shape: Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Are we entering the post-NAFTA world? It certainly looks that way.
The markets finally woke up to this on Wednesday, after sleepwalking for the past year, as bond yields and stock prices sank and the dollar took a hit on news that the Trump administration is preparing to pull the plug on the North American free-trade agreement, maybe even before the next round of negotiations slated for Montreal at the end of the month.
Markets have a way of ignoring facts, or at least taking a rosy view in complex situations of government-to-government trade policy. In this case, the somnambulism was based on misplaced optimism that trade negotiators would be able to solve the NAFTA problems, blithely ignoring the significance of…