A Strong, Secure and Sovereign Canada
Long-standing alliances are under pressure. New tariffs are being introduced. And businesses are finding it harder to plan for the future.
Read insights from our experts on a stronger, smarter and more future-ready trade strategy.
Urgency and Caution: Charting a Careful Path to the CUSMA Review
Canada must avoid overreacting to escalating US trade actions and approach the upcoming Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review with discipline and strategic calm. Meredith Lilly argues that Canada should avoid knee-jerk responses to US provocations and focus instead on long-term economic and diplomatic priorities. Her message: show restraint, work closely with Mexico, and let seasoned trade officials guide the process.
Tariffs are Bad, Uncertainty is Worse: Implications for Canada Ahead of Trade and Security Negotiations with the United States
Canada must take a strategic approach combined with clear tactics as it heads toward a full renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in 2026, according to the C.D. Howe Institute’s Trade Crisis Working Group. US concerns over Canada’s digital services tax, dairy tariff quotas, and demands for tighter auto rules of origin will drive tensions at the July 1, 2026 deadline for a trilateral review of CUSMA (or USMCA in the United States) approaches.
Putting Canada’s Economy First: The C.D. Howe Institute’s 2025 Shadow Budget
This Shadow Budget restores surpluses by 2028/29, lowering the debt ratio from its current level above 42 percent to 35 percent by 2029/30. It also sets Canada on a path to increase its defence spending to meet its 2 percent NATO commitment, increasing defence spending $16 billion compared to plans.
A Backgrounder on Remaining Barriers to Internal Trade within Canada
Canadians are aware that there remain many important – and silly – barriers to trade within Canada, and that we can ill-afford the cost of these barriers to East-West trade, especially given the furious headwinds against North-South trade coming out of the White House. However, it would be wrong to suggest that there has not been important progress in reducing these barriers.
Eyes on the Prize: A Game Plan to Speed Up Removal of Internal Trade Barriers in Canada
Canada’s governments are party to the Canadian Free Trade Agreement (CFTA), which instituted a novel venue for the resolution of interprovincial trade barriers: the Regulatory Reconciliation and Cooperation Table (RCT). Drawing on cross-country interviews with key experts and players involved in the efforts to reduce internal trade barriers in Canada, this paper proposes a set of recommendations for the RCT process to generate improved results going forward.
Protectionism and Retaliation
Canada, along with Mexico, is particularly heavily exposed to trade with the United States. Amid such high uncertainty, we consider the implications of a historical example of an attempt to address so-called trade imbalances, namely the ‘Nixon measures’ of 1971. This publication models a Nixon-measures-type 10 percent tariff surcharge unilaterally imposed by the United States on its trade partners and models a Canadian tariff of 10 percent against the United States to see whether Canada is better or worse off by retaliating.
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