Evidence Mounts that 2015 Downturn was no Recession

Report of the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council

December 21, 2016 - It is not possible to call the first two quarters of 2015 a recession. This is the consensus view of the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council, which met on December 13, 2016.

The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, chaired by Steve Ambler, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada.  The Council meets on an annual basis, or as warranted when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession. The Council also acts as a conduit for research aimed at deepening understanding of how the economy evolves and to provide relevant information to decision makers.

The Council reviewed its assessments of Canadian business cycle dates following the most recent revisions to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The Council determined that it is not possible to call the first two quarters of 2015 a recession.  While GDP contracted in both Q1 and Q2 2015, the downturn was restricted to only a few industries, and national employment expanded over this period.