G. Kent Fellows – Oil Sands are Richer Than You Think
From: G. Kent Fellows To: Oilpatch Observers Date: January 17, 2023 Re: Oil Sands are Richer Than You Think Canadian and global climate change ambitions are generally associated with a reduction of fossil-fuel reliance as a mechanism to reduce carbon emissions. Many major energy authorities including The International Energy Agency and BP Energy (via their Global energy outlook) now […] Sabrina T. Howell – Evidence on SME Financing from the Cutting Edge of Economic Research
To: Canadian Innovation Policymakers From: Sabrina T. Howell Date: January 16, 2023 Re: Evidence on SME Financing from the Cutting Edge of Economic Research Governments around the world have numerous programs to provide funding for small and medium-sized enterprises. There are some important lessons they can draw from recent US economic research. The US Small […] Looking Ahead with Andrew Coyne
What will 2023 bring for inflation, the housing market and healthcare? In episode one of the C.D. Howe Institute Podcast’s fifth season, the Globe & Mail’s Andrew Coyne joins host Michael Hainsworth for insight into the year ahead.
Reversal of Fortunes: Rising Interest Rates and Losses at the Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada is responding to high inflation by increasing its policy interest rate. With the Bank having recently expanded its balance sheet by buying government bonds and increasing its liabilities to financial institutions, higher policy rates have immediate implications for the Bank of Canada’s own finances. The bonds were largely purchased from financial […] Bank of Canada Losses Could Top $8 Billion
Cumulative losses at the Bank of Canada could reach between $3.6 billion and $8.8 billion over the next two to three years, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Reversal of Fortunes: Rising Interest Rates and Losses at…Lawrence Herman – Analyzing the Year Ahead
From: Lawrence Herman To: Canadians Concerned About Trade Date: January 12, 2023 Re: Analyzing the Year Ahead China’s disruptive behaviour destabilized the global trading order well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February. Such events and trends have converged to produce tectonic shifts in international business as we go into 2023. What does this mean for what remains […]We won’t make Ottawa’s 2030 emissions targets and it won’t even be close – Financial Post Op-Ed
Last March, Ottawa announced its target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. It wants to reduce them from 740 million tonnes (MT) of CO2-equivalent in 2019 to 442 MT in 2030, a reduction of 298 MT, or 40 per cent. Unfortunately, setting targets is a lot easier than hitting them. Ottawa’s Emissions Reduction Plan is long on policies and programs but short on what will actually need to happen in order to reach these targets.
My own analysis, available on the C. D. Howe Institute website, suggests the 2030 reduction will be, at best, only 158 MT — only a little over halfway to Ottawa’s target.
I get this result with fact-based, bottom-up calculations. Consider …
The Bank of Canada’s millions in balance-sheet losses are only the beginning – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
While the full effects of the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes are not yet known, there is an immediate effect on the central bank’s own finances: growing interest expenses and large financial losses. The bank’s recently released third-quarter financial results showed that for the first time, the bank incurred a net loss: $511-million. This is only the beginning.
This matters, especially at a time of heightened political attention toward monetary-policy issues.
The bank’s revenue is largely derived from its asset holdings, which mainly included Government of Canada bonds and treasury bills. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, these bond holdings cost the bank very little, and their returns normally exceeded bank expenses…
David Gray – Reforming Canada’s EI System
From: David Gray To: The Hon. Carla Qualtrough, Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Disability Inclusion of Canada Date: January 11, 2023 Re: Reforming Canada’s EI System Recent major economic shocks have exposed shortcomings in Canada’s employment insurance system. During the Great Recession of 2008, the oil price collapse in 2014 and the most recent pandemic, Employment Insurance (EI) […] What 2023 might bring for the postwar rules-based trading system – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
China’s disruptive behaviour had de-stabilized the global trading order well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February. Such geopolitical trends, among others, have converged to produce tectonic shifts in international business as we go forward into 2023.
So, what does this mean for what still remains of the post-Second World War rules-based trading system?
For starters, the World Trade Organization, the body that oversees the multilateral system, is under considerable stress. In spite of exhortations at its ministerial meeting last June and a recent plea from its director-general, the WTO has floundered over the past few years.
The problems are deeply entrenched. The WTO is mired in internal governance…
Jeremy M. Kronick – Make the Bank of Canada’s Job Easier
From: Jeremy M. Kronick To: Canada’s Governments Date: January 9, 2023 Re: Make the Bank of Canada’s Job Easier When every party understands its role, better public policy ensues. For Canada’s monetary and fiscal authorities, this means central bankers ensure a stable currency value and governments create conditions for strong economic growth. Right now, however, inflation is as high […] Laurin, Dahir – How Clawbacks Hurt Lower Income Parents
To: Diane Lebouthillier, Minister of National Revenue From: Alexandre Laurin and Nicholas Dahir Date: January 6, 2023 Re: How clawbacks hurt lower income parents Parents across the country may be thinking about taking on an extra shift or an extra job to pay off holiday bills or keep up with the rising costs of day-to-day items. What these hard […]