Business Cycle Council

Canada Dodged Recession, Risks Remain in 2024

March 27, 2024 – Canada avoided a recession in the last two years but risks remain for 2024, according to the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council (BCC). 

In “So Far, So Good: C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council Declares Recession Avoided in 2022, 2023,” members of the BCC examined if a recession had occurred in the past two years and found that the Canadian economy did not fulfill the conditions required to indicate a recession.

C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council (BCC) is an authoritative arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The BCC meets when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession and acts as a conduit for research aimed at developing a deeper…

So Far, So Good: C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council Declares Recession Avoided in 2022, 2023

We must do away with ‘zombie governance’ in the corporate world – Globe and Mail

In the book Zombie Economics, John Quiggin explained how dead ideas – assumptions about market economics refuted by the 2008-09 financial crisis – live on in the minds of many people, including those charged with cleaning up the mess. While not supported by evidence or analysis, these narratives persist as “dead ideas that still walk among us.” Why? Largely because they advance the interests of particular (typically elite) groups who want to believe in them and make them true.

Likewise, corporate governance best practices are typically based on intuition, opinion and rhetoric. Such thinking has been elevated – mandated by regulators and rated by a burgeoning class of governance experts for whom such standards become self-…

Overly optimistic Liberals are lowballing government debt risk – Financial Post

In its November Fall Economic Statement, the federal government presented a long-term projection that shows its debt ratio — that is, federal debt divided by GDP — declining smoothly over the next 30 years. But this outcome follows from overly optimistic assumptions about interest rates and program spending, and a decision to ignore the impact of recessions, which are certain to happen in any 30-year period. Taking such a rosy approach to debt sustainability allows the government to avoid making the hard choices on spending and taxes that no government likes.

Ottawa’s analysis assumes the effective interest rate on federal debt remains below the growth rate of the economy from now all the way to 2055-56. This sunny…

Ted Carmichael – How to Tame Inflation Without Breaking the Economy

Consumers bring forward spending if they expect continued inflation: C.D. Howe’s Jeremy Kronick

Jeremy Kronick, director of monetary and financial services research at the C.D. Howe Institute, tells BNN Bloomberg that elevated inflation expectations could be a reason for the jump in household spending in today’s Q1 GDP data. He says lower business spending makes him less optimistic about improvement in productivity. On the BoC’s rate meeting next month, he says the central bank may choose to see if future data continues to support tightening before hiking rates again.

Lawrence Herman – Private-Sector Global Standards Still Need Some Government Help

Higher interest rates will cause a recession – how do we pick up the pieces? – Globe and Mail Op-Ed

While many have challenged the pace of the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate hikes, their likelihood of success and the extent to which further increases are merited, it has already become clear that, regardless, a recession is imminent. And while it remains to be seen how deep and how long that recession will be, there is no question it will hurt some more than others.

Will governments be there to pick up the pieces and manage the consequences of higher interest rates? If so, how, and in what ways can they help, given their rather precarious fiscal position, with Ottawa carrying $1.1-trillion in debt?

Among the many things that concern us are the distributional impacts of the looming downturn – some groups are…

Reshoring is a poor long-term strategy for sustainable growth – The Hub Op-Ed

On November 22, 2022, as part of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce’s Ontario Economic Summit, The Hub’s executive director Rudyard Griffiths moderated a “Munk-style” debate involving Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coyne, C.D. Howe Institute CEO Bill Robson, former Ontario Cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello, and The Hub’s own editor-at-large Sean Speer. The debate’s resolution read: Be It Resolved: Ontario Needs Reshoring as Part of Its Growth Agenda. Pupatello and Speer argued in favour of the motion. Coyne and Robson against it.

Thanks to the organizers for inviting us here to debate this very important question. Our worthy opponents, Sandra and Sean, make a very valiant case in favour of reshoring as part of Ontario’s growth…

S4 E16: SME Challenges with Michael Denham

Canada’s small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) face numerous challenges to scaling-up to compete on the world stage. There are ways to remove those barriers to financing and deepen capital markets. Michael Denham, National Bank of Canada’s Vice Chair of Commercial and Financial Markets, tells C.D. Howe Institute Podcast Host Michael Hainsworth that there are three key hurdles to overcome.

Weak Capital Investment in Canada Hurts Canadian Workers