Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve Ambler – Sooner Rather than Later Needed for More Rate Cuts

Jeremy M. Kronick on BNN Bloomberg – How a 2% interest rate could impact mortgage rates

As Canada stays on track for a 2 percent inflation rate, what could this mean for mortgage rates? Jeremy M. Kronick, Vice-President, Economic Analysis and Strategy at the C.D. Howe Institute, explains.

Jeremy M. Kronick on BNN Bloomberg – Bank of Canada delivers 50 bps rate cut

Jeremy M. Kronick, Vice-President, Economic Analysis and Strategy at the C.D. Howe Institute, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk about The Bank of Canada delivering 50 bps rate cut.

Kronick, Ambler – Predicting (and Confirming) Business Cycles in Canada

Business Cycle Council

Canada Dodged Recession, Risks Remain in 2024

March 27, 2024 – Canada avoided a recession in the last two years but risks remain for 2024, according to the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council (BCC). 

In “So Far, So Good: C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council Declares Recession Avoided in 2022, 2023,” members of the BCC examined if a recession had occurred in the past two years and found that the Canadian economy did not fulfill the conditions required to indicate a recession.

C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council (BCC) is an authoritative arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The BCC meets when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession and acts as a conduit for research aimed at developing a deeper…

So Far, So Good: C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council Declares Recession Avoided in 2022, 2023

We must do away with ‘zombie governance’ in the corporate world – Globe and Mail

In the book Zombie Economics, John Quiggin explained how dead ideas – assumptions about market economics refuted by the 2008-09 financial crisis – live on in the minds of many people, including those charged with cleaning up the mess. While not supported by evidence or analysis, these narratives persist as “dead ideas that still walk among us.” Why? Largely because they advance the interests of particular (typically elite) groups who want to believe in them and make them true.

Likewise, corporate governance best practices are typically based on intuition, opinion and rhetoric. Such thinking has been elevated – mandated by regulators and rated by a burgeoning class of governance experts for whom such standards become self-…

Overly optimistic Liberals are lowballing government debt risk – Financial Post

In its November Fall Economic Statement, the federal government presented a long-term projection that shows its debt ratio — that is, federal debt divided by GDP — declining smoothly over the next 30 years. But this outcome follows from overly optimistic assumptions about interest rates and program spending, and a decision to ignore the impact of recessions, which are certain to happen in any 30-year period. Taking such a rosy approach to debt sustainability allows the government to avoid making the hard choices on spending and taxes that no government likes.

Ottawa’s analysis assumes the effective interest rate on federal debt remains below the growth rate of the economy from now all the way to 2055-56. This sunny…

Ted Carmichael – How to Tame Inflation Without Breaking the Economy

Consumers bring forward spending if they expect continued inflation: C.D. Howe’s Jeremy Kronick

Jeremy Kronick, director of monetary and financial services research at the C.D. Howe Institute, tells BNN Bloomberg that elevated inflation expectations could be a reason for the jump in household spending in today’s Q1 GDP data. He says lower business spending makes him less optimistic about improvement in productivity. On the BoC’s rate meeting next month, he says the central bank may choose to see if future data continues to support tightening before hiking rates again.

Lawrence Herman – Private-Sector Global Standards Still Need Some Government Help