Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi – Mind the Spin Around Changes in Canadian Immigration Targets
From: Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi To: Immigration observers Date: November 19, 2024 Re: Mind the Spin Around Changes in Canadian Immigration Targets “Immigration targets slashed!” “Drastic reduction in temporary residents.” “Canada to reduce new immigration by 21 percent.” These sorts of headlines dominated the news after the federal government’s announcement to reduce Canada’s intake of permanent residents by 21 […] Drummond, Mahboubi – Beware the Spin Around Changes to Immigration Targets
Published in the Financial Post.
Immigration targets slashed! Drastic reduction in temporary residents. Canada to reduce new immigration by 21 per cent.
Headlines like these dominated the news after Ottawa announced it was reducing Canada’s intake of permanent residents by 21 per cent over the next three years, alongside new measures to bring the population of temporary immigrants into line with goals for it.
But the story really depends on the angle.
Yes, Canada’s new targets are much lower than both recent inflows and the previous official targets of 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025 and 2026. And, yes, Ottawa also plans to reduce the population share of temporary residents to five per cent by early 2027…
Graph of the Week: Canada’s Plan to Cut Non-Permanent Residents by 30 Percent by Early 2027
The chart illustrates both the historical and projected shares of non-permanent residents (NPRs), highlighting a significant rise, which peaked in mid-2024. Moving forward, Canada aims to moderate this trend, but to hit its target, it must reduce the number of NPRs by approximately 933,000 (over 30 percent) between mid-2024 and the beginning of 2027, a […] Christopher Worswick – High-Skill Migrants Should be Our Goal
From: Christopher Worswick To: Immigration observers Date: November 4, 2024 Re: High-Skill Migrants Should be Our Goal Late last month, Ottawa introduced major reductions in permanent-resident numbers and published population targets for temporary migrants for the first time. This policy pivot is a sensible response to the evolving immigration and macroeconomic situation in Canada. Given the dramatic increases […] C.D. Howe Institute Advisory Group on Immigration Targets
The C.D. Howe Institute has convened an Advisory Group on Immigration Targets to provide recommendations on immigration policy and immigration-level targets. On October 21, 2024, the group held its first meeting to discuss the future direction of Canada’s immigration targets, with a focus on balancing demographic shifts and the country’s absorptive capacity.
Following the government’s recent announcement on reducing immigration targets, the group’s discussions remain pertinent, as members raised concerns about the rapid increase in temporary residents, declining public confidence, housing shortages, and rising unemployment rates, underscoring the need to recalibrate Canada’s immigration approach. These…
Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt with Parisa Mahboubi and Bill Robson
When it comes to Canada’s finances, the country is aging in more ways than one. With a shrinking workforce, government revenue growth slowing, and costs for healthcare, pensions, and seniors benefits escalating. This issue disproportionately affects provincial governments, who bear the brunt of healthcare spending.
In the recent C.D. Howe Institute commentary “Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt: The Fiscal Implications of Demographic Change for Ottawa and the Provinces,” we learn that over the next four decades governments face an implicit $2 trillion liability because of these demographic changes.
Michael Hainsworth talks to commentary authors Parisa Mahboubi and Bill Robson about their research, their conclusions, and the possible solutions to problems caused by this aging trend.
Graph of the Week: Rising Unemployment Challenges Newcomers in a Changing Canadian Economy
During the 2010s, the unemployment rate gap between newcomers and Canadian-born individuals narrowed, largely due to changes in immigration policies, such as the introduction of the Express Entry system. This trend continued in 2021 and 2022 as labour market conditions tightened. However, newcomers and non-permanent residents are now experiencing a sharp rise in unemployment, bearing […] Daniel Hiebert – Immigration and a Population Strategy for Canada (Part 2, The Regions)
From: Daniel Hiebert To: Immigration observers Date: October 25, 2024 Re: Immigration and a Population Strategy for Canada (Part 2, The Regions) Canada’s population is growing, but unevenly. Broadly speaking, we can divide the country into fast- and slow-growing regions. Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, and the Territories make up ‘fast’ Canada, while the other Prairie provinces, Québec, and Atlantic […] Daniel Hiebert – Immigration and a Population Strategy for Canada (Part 1)
From: Daniel Hiebert To: Concerned Canadians Date: October 24, 2024 Re: Immigration and a Population Strategy for Canada (Part 1) Canada established one of the world’s first managed migration systems more than half a century ago when it invented points-based economic selection. Since then, legislation has mandated that immigration policy be designed to facilitate a number […] Mahboubi, Robson – Demography is Destiny, and Canada’s Picture Isn’t Pretty
From: Parisa Mahboubi and William B.P. RobsonTo: Canadians, young and oldDate: September 26, 2024Re: Demography is Destiny, and Canada’s Picture Isn’t Pretty Canada is facing a demographic shift that will put immense strain on our healthcare system and public finances. We currently have about three working-age (18-64) adults for every senior (65+). By 2067, we […] Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt: The Fiscal Implications of Demographic Change for Ottawa and the Provinces
Canada’s changing demographics matter for public finances. Canada’s baby boom from the late 1940s through the mid-1960s was large. The subsequent decline in the national fertility rate was steep. As a result, some 65 years after the baby boom’s peak, Canada’s population is aging fast. Rapid population aging creates challenges for public finances. Departures from […] Parisa Mahboubi – Faster, Please, on Fixing the Temporary Foreign Worker Problem
From: Parisa MahboubiTo: Immigration observersDate: August 23, 2024Re: Faster, Please, on Fixing the Temporary Foreign Worker Problem The government has committed to reducing the non-permanent resident population to 5 percent of the overall population within three years, current trends in issuing work permits reveal a troubling disconnect between policy goals and on-the-ground realities. Despite efforts to curb the influx […]