From: Don Drummond and Nicholas Dahir To: Fiscal policy decision-makers Date: August 27, 2026 Re: Back to the Future: Guidance from a Historical Perspective of Canada’s Finances Fiscal anchors, or “guardrails,” are meant to keep governments’ minds on long-term fiscal sustainability as they make annual decisions about revenue, spending and borrowing. In recent years, Ottawa […]
What would a US debt crisis mean for Canada? Martin Eichenbaum, Charles Moskos Professor of Economics at Northwestern University and International Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, says a US fiscal crisis is a “very high probability event” over his lifetime. The question is not exactly when it will happen, but whether Canada will be […]
What would a US debt crisis mean for Canada? Martin Eichenbaum, Charles Moskos Professor of Economics at Northwestern University and International Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, says a US fiscal crisis is a “very high probability event” over his lifetime. The question is not exactly when it will happen, but whether Canada will be […]
Overview by John Lester and Benoît Robidoux Drawing on presentations and discussion at the C.D. Howe Institute’s 2026 Workshop on Strengthening the Federal Evaluation Function, this Conference Report examines why the federal evaluation function produces too little usable evidence to inform expenditure management. It combines the workshop proceedings with additional analysis and recommendations from the […]
6 août 2026 – Alors que le Canada accroît ses dépenses en matière de défense et d’infrastructures, les décideurs fédéraux subissent des pressions croissantes pour prendre des décisions difficiles concernant d’autres postes de dépenses publiques. Or, le système d’évaluation d’Ottawa fournit trop peu de données probantes pour déterminer quels programmes offrent la plus grande valeur aux Canadiens, selon […]
August 6, 2026 – As Canada ramps up defence and infrastructure spending, federal policymakers are facing growing pressure to make difficult decisions about other areas of government spending. Yet Ottawa’s evaluation system provides too little evidence to identify which programs deliver the greatest value for Canadians, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. In […]
Canada currently has the third-lowest 10-year government bond yield in the G7. Across the G7, more favourable changes in central-government debt-to-GDP ratios between 1995 and 2024 have generally been associated with larger declines in those governments’ 10-year bond yields since 1995; Canada ranks first for debt-ratio improvement and second for yield decline. Although inflation and […]
From: Don Drummond and Nicholas Dahir To: Fiscal and monetary policy decision-makers Date: July 29, 2026 Re: Canada Has the Advantage on Borrowing Costs: Let’s Keep It We previously presented how the Canadian-US bond yield differential has evolved to produce a borrowing-cost advantage for Canada. In this Memo we broaden our scope to see how Canada compares internationally. Canada has steadily strengthened its attractiveness to investors among its G7 peers. How […]
From: Colin Busby and Nick Dahir To: Canadian economic observers Date: July 21, 2026 Re: The NATO Pledge Will Transform Federal Finances – Show Us How A rear-view glance to this month’s NATO summit should prompt a concentrated stare to the future, asking how Canada plans to achieve its commitment to spend 5 percent of GDP on defence […]
Published in the The Globe and Mail. A rear-view glance to this month’s NATO summit should prompt a look to the future, asking how Canada plans to achieve its commitment to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035. For Canada to meet the NATO pledge, it will have to make difficult choices on taxes, […]
Since 2012, Canada’s 10-year bond yield has been 49 basis points on average lower then the US’ giving Canada a borrowing-cost advantage. This was not always the case. In the period from 1960-1990, before the introduction of inflation targeting, when inflation generally ran higher in Canada than in the United States and both countries’ federal governments took on significant debt, […]
From: Don Drummond and Nicholas DahirTo: Fiscal and monetary policy decision-makersDate: June 29, 2026 Re: Keeping Our Edge: The Benefits of Sound Monetary and Fiscal Policy For much of the second half of the twentieth century, the United States enjoyed a borrowing-cost advantage over Canada. Today, the advantage is in Canada’s favour. That reversal should serve […]
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From: Don Drummond and Nicholas Dahir To: Fiscal policy decision-makers Date: August 27, 2026 Re: Back to the Future: Guidance from a Historical Perspective of Canada’s Finances Fiscal anchors, or “guardrails,” are meant to keep governments’ minds on long-term fiscal sustainability as they make annual decisions about revenue, spending and borrowing. In recent years, Ottawa […] 
What would a US debt crisis mean for Canada? Martin Eichenbaum, Charles Moskos Professor of Economics at Northwestern University and International Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, says a US fiscal crisis is a “very high probability event” over his lifetime. The question is not exactly when it will happen, but whether Canada will be […] 
Overview by John Lester and Benoît Robidoux Drawing on presentations and discussion at the C.D. Howe Institute’s 2026 Workshop on Strengthening the Federal Evaluation Function, this Conference Report examines why the federal evaluation function produces too little usable evidence to inform expenditure management. It combines the workshop proceedings with additional analysis and recommendations from the […] 
Canada currently has the third-lowest 10-year government bond yield in the G7. Across the G7, more favourable changes in central-government debt-to-GDP ratios between 1995 and 2024 have generally been associated with larger declines in those governments’ 10-year bond yields since 1995; Canada ranks first for debt-ratio improvement and second for yield decline. Although inflation and […] 
From: Don Drummond and Nicholas Dahir To: Fiscal and monetary policy decision-makers Date: July 29, 2026 Re: Canada Has the Advantage on Borrowing Costs: Let’s Keep It We previously presented how the Canadian-US bond yield differential has evolved to produce a borrowing-cost advantage for Canada. In this Memo we broaden our scope to see how Canada compares internationally. Canada has steadily strengthened its attractiveness to investors among its G7 peers. How […] 
From: Colin Busby and Nick Dahir To: Canadian economic observers Date: July 21, 2026 Re: The NATO Pledge Will Transform Federal Finances – Show Us How A rear-view glance to this month’s NATO summit should prompt a concentrated stare to the future, asking how Canada plans to achieve its commitment to spend 5 percent of GDP on defence […] 
Published in the The Globe and Mail. A rear-view glance to this month’s NATO summit should prompt a look to the future, asking how Canada plans to achieve its commitment to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035. For Canada to meet the NATO pledge, it will have to make difficult choices on taxes, […] 
Since 2012, Canada’s 10-year bond yield has been 49 basis points on average lower then the US’ giving Canada a borrowing-cost advantage. This was not always the case. In the period from 1960-1990, before the introduction of inflation targeting, when inflation generally ran higher in Canada than in the United States and both countries’ federal governments took on significant debt, […] 
From: Don Drummond and Nicholas DahirTo: Fiscal and monetary policy decision-makersDate: June 29, 2026 Re: Keeping Our Edge: The Benefits of Sound Monetary and Fiscal Policy For much of the second half of the twentieth century, the United States enjoyed a borrowing-cost advantage over Canada. Today, the advantage is in Canada’s favour. That reversal should serve […]