Debt-Fuelled Consumption Belies Ottawa’s Brave Talk of Transformation

To: Canadians concerned about the federal government’s “investment” hypeFrom: William B.P. Robson and Mawakina Bafale Re: Debt-Fuelled Consumption Belies Ottawa’s Brave Talk of Transformation Even as the gap widens between feeble capital investment in Canada and surging investment in the United States, so does the gap between the Carney government’s hype about investing for prosperity […]

Ottawa hypes investment but stokes consumption

Published in Financial Post. Even as the gap widens between feeble capital investment in Canada and surging investment in the United States, so does the gap between the Carney government’s hype about investing for prosperity and its actual pursuit of debt-fuelled consumption. Last week, it announced its latest response to affordability concerns: the Canada Groceries […]

How Retirement Benefit Clawbacks Hit Lower-Income Taxpayers Hardest

To: Finance CanadaFrom: Nick Dahir and Alexandre Laurin Date: February 6, 2026Re: How Retirement Benefit Clawbacks Hit Lower-Income Taxpayers Hardest The taxation of retirement income is a key consideration for pension, tax, and fiscal policy. Drawdowns of tax-deferred retirement savings are taxable. Future government revenues depend on how withdrawals are taxed in retirement, and government spending […]

New Tax Credit Could Expand Vital Retirement Coverage for Working Canadians

February 3, 2026 – More than nine million working Canadians lack access to a workplace retirement plan, with the gap most pronounced among employees of small- and mid-sized businesses, according to a new C.D Howe Institute report. As a result, many are left to make inconsistent, often costly, savings decisions that increase the risk of […]

Defence Spending and Debt: Canada’s Concerning Position Among NATO Allies 

NATO Countries Defence Spending and General Government Debt, as a percentage of GDP, 2024Countries’ ability to meet their NATO defence spending targets is predicated on the fiscal capacity to do so. The graph shows NATO countries’ 2024 defence spending versus their debt, as a share of GDP, with the horizontal line demarcating the 2025 NATO spending target for core defence spending (2.0 percent, increasing to 3.5 percent for […]

Please, Santa, what Canada needs for Christmas is slimmer budgets

Published in Financial Post. Initial buzz about last month’s supposedly “generational” federal budget marking a decisive break from the growth-suppressing fiscal policies of the recent past has now faded. In retrospect, far too much of the budget was discouragingly familiar: more upward revisions of projected spending and borrowing, narrowly focused tax measures and — in […]

More Distance to Travel in Controlling Federal Program Spending

From: John LesterTo: Canadians Concerned About Federal SpendingDate: November 20, 2025Re: More Distance to Travel in Controlling Federal Program Spending There is much to like in the expenditure “cuts” announced in the federal budget. Contrary to my initial concerns, the government did not impose across-the-board reductions to the narrow review base. Departmental proposals were vetted centrally, […]

After the Budget: Time for Hard Hats and Signs of Progress

From: David Jones To: Budget observersDate: November 17, 2025Re: After the Budget: Time for Hard Hats and Signs of Progress Mark Carney’s budget strategy could not be clearer. It’s “build baby build.” It’s a “generational investment.” It’s “invest more and spend less.” Capital investment is the budget’s uncompromising long-term plan. Tuesday’s budget posts a deficit of […]

Ottawa’s spending cuts are a good start. But there’s more fat to be trimmed

Published in The Globe and Mail. There is much to like in the expenditure “cuts” announced in the federal budget. Contrary to my initial concerns, the government did not impose across-the-board reductions to the narrow review base. Departmental proposals were vetted centrally, allowing reductions to vary by department. And the spending review is accompanied by targeted […]

Federal Fiscal Promises Lack Credibility

November 13, 2025 – Canada’s latest federal budget promises fiscal restraint, but recent experience provides sobering context. Successive projections for spending, deficits, debt, and total liabilities have repeatedly overshot their predecessors. The gap between the projections in the November 2025 budget and the projections in the Fall Economic Statement of 2024 continues this pattern, raising […]

Fiscal Fantasies: Four Incredible Projections in the November 2025 Federal Budget

Edited remarks delivered to the Toronto Association for Business and Economics (TABE) webinar, “Living on the Edge: Federal Budget Post-Mortem,” on November 13, 2025. In isolation, the words and numbers in the federal budget presented on November 4, 2025, show a government getting a grip on the excesses that doubled its debt over the past […]

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