Has the economy landed already? Depends which inflation numbers you look at – Financial Post Op-Ed

Last week’s inflation numbers for July gave those of us who analyze the outlook for prices plenty to think about. The headline inflation number, which measures the increase in prices over the last 12 months, clocked in at an unruly 7.6 per cent, while the month-to-month inflation figure came in at a much better-behaved 0.13 per cent, which works out to an annualized 1.6 per cent, which is below the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target.

The June-to-July change was mostly driven by a fall in energy prices, which may or may not be repeated and could easily be reversed if the Russo-Ukraine war or other international conditions worsen. People understand that energy prices go up and down. But the July result does underscore the…

Devlin, Forssell – Quantitative Tightening May Cause Unexpected Trouble

Ed Devlin on BNN – The hidden sting in removing stimulus: A tide of new debt

Ed Devlin, Senior Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute and founder of Devlin Capital, joined BNN Bloomberg and discussed the Bank of Canada being in uncharted territory as it implements quantitative tightening – the shrinking of its balance sheet – while also tightening interest rates. He advised the Bank to be flexible if a flood of new government bonds ends up swamping Canada’s illiquid market.

William B.P. Robson – Inflection Points for Inflation and the Economy

We are at a major turning point in the fight against inflation – Globe and Mail Op-Ed

Two economic headlines a week apart – the Bank of Canada’s 1 per cent hike in the overnight rate last week, and the 8.1 per cent year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index Wednesday – make clear that we are at a major turning point. The Bank has underlined its determination to get inflation, which it admits it underestimated, back to its 2-per-cent target. Canadians can look forward to lower inflation, and also need to be ready for the recession that will precede it.

Although the Bank’s hike was larger than most forecasters expected, the June CPI report validated the big move. Canadians too young to have experienced inflation like this before are discovering what older Canadians already knew…

Ambler, Kronick – Thanks, We Needed That. Why the Bank Move Was the Right One

Why these interest rate hikes are so necessary – Globe and Mail Op-Ed

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada increased the scope of its interest rate increases, raising its overnight rate target by 100 basis points to 2.5 per cent. We haven’t seen a hike that big in recent memory, and the target rate is now higher than at any time since before the financial crisis in 2008.

With mortgage and other market interest rates increasing with the overnight rate, fears of a recession are mounting. There are two big questions. First, are there alternatives to the blunt overnight rate for fighting inflation? Second, how bad will the recession need to be to bring inflation back down? Unfortunately, the answer to the first question is no, there aren’t any viable alternatives. However, the recession…

S4 E9: Inflation and a Recession with Bill Robson and Jeremy Kronick

Raising interest rates to cool inflation is only part of the solution. But as the C.D. Howe Institute’s Bill Robson and Jeremy Kronick tell host Michael Hainsworth, fiscal policy that increases corporate Canada’s productive capacity to meet demand isn’t likely, leaving the central bank with the task of dousing the inflationary fire from 2 years of COVID-19 spending.

Ed Devlin on BNN – Canadian interest rates alone won’t solve the global inflation problem

Ed Devlin, Founder of Devlin Capital and Senior Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute (also former Head of Canadian Portfolio Management, PIMCO), joins BNN Bloomberg for reaction to Bank of Canada’s largest rate hike since 1998. He says the central bank is frontloading rate hikes today instead of indicating a faster tightening cycle.

C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Calls for Bank of Canada to Raise Overnight Rate to 2.25 Percent Next Week and 3.25 Percent by 2023

July 7, 2022 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent on July 13th. The MPC recommends further increases over the coming year: to 2.75 percent in September and 3.25 percent by January 2023. Its call for the overnight rate in a year’s time was also 3.25 percent. The MPC also recommends that the Bank maintain the current pace of reduction in its holdings of Government of Canada bonds between now and September.

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson,…

William B.P. Robson – Higher Productivity Would Help Fight Inflation

Money Talks: The Old, New Tool for Predicting Inflation