Don Drummond – It was Hard, but the Bank of Canada was Right to Hold its Course on Interest Rates

Are Interest Rates Now High?

Did the U.S. financial crisis make the Bank of Canada’s job easier? – Financial Post Op-Ed

Last week, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate, its benchmark policy rate, at 4.5 per cent. No surprises there. In its last announcement, the bank told us the data were consistent with their view that, with the target rate where it is, inflation would come back down to three per cent by the middle of this year. Data since have not changed governing council’s view that at present more tightening wasn’t necessary.

In fact, if anything, the major economic development over the last six weeks, the failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, as well as the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS Group AG, made caution even more prudent. Furthermore, it might actually make the…

Bank of Canada was right to hold interest rates steady, even if that was difficult – Globe and Mail Op-Ed

At its last interest rate setting on March 8, the Bank of Canada paused its months-long hiking campaign and left unchanged its target for the overnight interest rate at 4.5 per cent. Being on the fence can be uncomfortable in the current inflationary environment – but for the latest rate setting on Wednesday, the bank was right to remain there.

Perching on the fence is uncomfortable for many reasons. First is the long lag time between setting interest rates and seeing the result. It can take 18 months or more for changes in interest rates to affect economic activity and then inflation. The bank’s rate hikes over the past year are moving inflation in the right direction. The year-over-year rate of…

Ambler, Kronick – The Bank of Canada Didn’t Follow the Fed Last Week: A Good Call

C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Calls for Bank of Canada to Hold Overnight Rate at 4.50 Percent through September, Cut to 4.25 Percent by March of 2024

March 2, 2023 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada hold its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 4.50 percent on March 8th, and keep it at that level for the next six months. By March of 2024, the Council recommends a cut to 4.25 percent.

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s CEO, chairs the Council.

Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest-rate announcement, the subsequent announcement, and the announcements six months and one year ahead. The Council’s formal…

Ambler, Kronick – Five Reasons the Inflation Worst is Over

Jeremy Kronick on BNN – Explaining the Bank of Canada’s Latest Transparency Experiment

The Bank of Canada released minutes of its January 25 interest rate meeting this week. Our Jeremy Kronick outlined the benefits and risks of this first-ever initiative for a BNN Bloomberg television audience.

The Bank of Canada is right to ease off the brakes and see what happens – Financial Post Op-Ed

The Bank of Canada met market expectations last week by raising its policy rate by 25 basis points, to 4.5 per cent. The bank also changed its tone from hesitant caution to guarded optimism. Its message: Hikes might just be over.

In December, the bank made clear that any further tightening would depend on the data. This time, it stressed that if inflation declines in key sectors to the extent it forecast in its latest Monetary Policy Report, it will hold the policy rate steady and pause to assess the impact of its cumulative rate hikes. A terminal peak of 4.5 per cent would also be in line with the most recent C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council announcement.

We expect — as most Canadians…

Paul Jenkins – Pathways to Price Stability

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Need to Work Together – Financial Post Op-Ed

Since starting its fight against inflation last March the Bank of Canada has been focused on little else. That is in stark contrast with many of the country’s finance ministers, who have raised spending and increased government hiring. Coordination between our monetary and fiscal authorities would make the Bank’s job a lot easier. Failing that, however, the Bank should continue do what is necessary to get inflation back to target.

The onset of the pandemic saw unprecedented coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities around the globe, including in this country. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate to its effective lower bound (0.25 per cent) and then turned to less conventional monetary…

Tombe, Chen – BoC Losses are Just Getting Started. What to Do?