July 17, 2025 – A new C.D. Howe Institute report argues it was fiscal policy – not monetary – that drove the 2021/2022 inflation surge and that there was little the Bank of Canada could have done to prevent it. In “An Assessment of Canada’s 2021-22 Inflation Surge,” economists David Andolfatto and Fernando M. Martin […]
To: Bank of Canada observers From: Steve Ambler, Thorsten Koeppl, and Jeremy M. Kronick Date: June 13, 2025Re: Flexible Inflation Targeting Beats a Dual Mandate for the Bank of Canada. Let Us Count the Ways Toward the end of next year the Bank of Canada and the federal government will renew their agreement concerning the monetary control […]
To: Interest rate watchersFrom: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerDate: June 12, 2025Re: With Recession in the Wind, a Rate Cut Might Have Been Wise The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 2.75 percent last week, confirming market expectations. Data showing stubbornly high underlying inflation and robust-looking first-quarter GDP had led markets to price in only […]
The 3-month change in core-age employment (25-54) was negative for the first time since inflation began rising above 2 percent in 2021. Falls in core-age employment after growth of the kind we have seen in the last few years are often a sign of economic weakness. For more on why this drop in core-age employment […]
Published in The Globe and Mail The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday, confirming market expectations. Data showing stubbornly high underlying inflation and robust-looking first-quarter gross domestic product had led markets to price in only about a 20-per-cent probability of this cut. While we understand the bank’s thinking, we believe they […]
Published in the Financial Post Toward the end of next year the Bank of Canada and the federal government will renew their agreement concerning the monetary control framework. In the run-up to the renewal, the idea is gaining traction that the Bank should assume a “dual mandate” of both low, stable inflation and maximum output […]
Jeremy Kronick, Vice-President of Economic Analysis and Strategy at the C.D. Howe Institute, joined BNN Bloomberg’s The Close ahead of the Bank of Canada’s June overnight rate announcement. Listen to his insights here.
May 29, 2025 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) calls for the Bank of Canada to lower its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, from 2.75 percent to 2.50 percent at its next announcement on June 4th. The MPC further calls for the Bank to leave the target at 2.50 […]
To: Canadian inflation watchersFrom: Steve Ambler and Jeremy M. KronickDate: May 20, 2025Re: Stripping Mortgages from the CPI Can be a Useful Tool Our recent C.D. Howe Institute E-Brief examined the role of the mortgage interest cost component of the consumer price index (CPI) in influencing the overall dynamics of the CPI, particularly in response to […]
L’étude en bref Il faudra d’importants investissements publics et privés dans les infrastructures pour répondre à un éventail de besoins au Canada et ailleurs dans le monde, et particulièrement pour soutenir les projets de transition énergétique et numérique. Cependant, les promoteurs privés se retrouvent souvent coincés dans une impasse : ils ont besoin de capitaux […]
Flexible Inflation Targeting Beats a Dual Mandate: Lessons for Canada’s 2026 Framework Renewal The Bank of Canada and the Government of Canada will announce the renewal of their agreement concerning the monetary control framework in 2026, and discussions are underway about what form it should take. This E-Brief makes the case for a renewed emphasis […]
William B.P. Robson talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s agenda moving forward.
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July 17, 2025 – A new C.D. Howe Institute report argues it was fiscal policy – not monetary – that drove the 2021/2022 inflation surge and that there was little the Bank of Canada could have done to prevent it. In “An Assessment of Canada’s 2021-22 Inflation Surge,” economists David Andolfatto and Fernando M. Martin […] 
To: Interest rate watchersFrom: Jeremy M. Kronick and Steve AmblerDate: June 12, 2025Re: With Recession in the Wind, a Rate Cut Might Have Been Wise The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 2.75 percent last week, confirming market expectations. Data showing stubbornly high underlying inflation and robust-looking first-quarter GDP had led markets to price in only […] 
The 3-month change in core-age employment (25-54) was negative for the first time since inflation began rising above 2 percent in 2021. Falls in core-age employment after growth of the kind we have seen in the last few years are often a sign of economic weakness. For more on why this drop in core-age employment […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday, confirming market expectations. Data showing stubbornly high underlying inflation and robust-looking first-quarter gross domestic product had led markets to price in only about a 20-per-cent probability of this cut. While we understand the bank’s thinking, we believe they […] 
Jeremy Kronick, Vice-President of Economic Analysis and Strategy at the C.D. Howe Institute, joined BNN Bloomberg’s The Close ahead of the Bank of Canada’s June overnight rate announcement. Listen to his insights here. 
To: Canadian inflation watchersFrom: Steve Ambler and Jeremy M. KronickDate: May 20, 2025Re: Stripping Mortgages from the CPI Can be a Useful Tool Our recent C.D. Howe Institute E-Brief examined the role of the mortgage interest cost component of the consumer price index (CPI) in influencing the overall dynamics of the CPI, particularly in response to […] 
L’étude en bref Il faudra d’importants investissements publics et privés dans les infrastructures pour répondre à un éventail de besoins au Canada et ailleurs dans le monde, et particulièrement pour soutenir les projets de transition énergétique et numérique. Cependant, les promoteurs privés se retrouvent souvent coincés dans une impasse : ils ont besoin de capitaux […] 
William B.P. Robson talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s agenda moving forward.